1901—2015年丽水市降水周期变化研究  

Study on the trend of precipitation cycle in Lishui city from 1901 to 2015

作　　者：吴昊旻 王琦[2] 姜燕敏 张鑫 罗旭辉 WU Hao-min;WANG Qi;JIANG Yan-min;ZHANG Xin;LUO Xu-hui(Lishui Meteorological Service,Lishui 323000,China;National Meteorological Information Centre,Beijing 100081,China;Longquan Forestry Office,Longquan 323700,China)

机构地区：[1]丽水市气象局,浙江丽水323000 [2]国家气象信息中心,北京100081 [3]龙泉市林业局,浙江丽水323700

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2018年第6期96-101,共6页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：丽水市高层次人才项目(2014RC24);浙江省气象局科技计划项目(2016YB04);丽水气候生态创新团队项目(2015-1-4)共同资助

摘　　要：基于CRU(Climatic Research Unit)再分析资料,利用趋势分析法和Mann-Kendall检验方法对丽水地区降水的趋势变化和突变特征进行分析,运用Morlet小波变化和多窗口谱分析方法研究丽水地区年降水的周期变化特征,并重建显著周期信号,进而探究降水显著周期的演变规律。结果表明:1901—2015年丽水地区年降水量总体呈缓慢增长的变化趋势(不显著),约每10 a降水量增加8.41 mm,1962—1963年丽水地区年降水量序列经历了一次突变。小波分析表明,丽水地区降水量年代际的20 a周期、年际的4.0—8.0 a和2.0—4.0 a周期在全时域中较显著,尤其是2.0—4.0 a的降水周期通过了0.01显著性水平检验;多窗口谱分析表明,丽水地区年降水振荡最强的周期依次为2.5 a、2.1 a和4.1 a。Based on the Climatic Research Unit(CRU)reanalysis dataset,a trend analysis method and the Mann-Kendall trend test method were used to analyze the variation trend and sharply change feature of precipitation in Lishui.The characteristics of precipitation cycle were studied based on the Morlet wavelet transform method and a Multi-Taper method(MTM),and significant period signals were reconstructed in order to further explore its variation trend.The results show that annual precipitation from 1901 to 2015 increases slightly by 8.41 mm/10 a,and there is a mutation in annual precipitation between 1962 and 1963.The Morlet wavelet analysis results indicate that a 20-a decadal precipitation cycle and two inter-annual precipitation cycles of 4.0-8.0 a and 2.0-4.0 a are significant in Lishui during the whole study period,especially the cycle of 2.0-4.0 a with a significance level of P<0.01.The precipitation cycle with the strongest oscillation in Lishui is 2.5 a,followed by 2.1 a and 4.1 a,according to the MTM analysis.

关 键 词：降水 周期 多窗口谱 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]