1961—2013年中国强降水特征分析  

Characteristics analysis of heavy precipitation in China from 1961 to 2013

作　　者：郑石 王冠 林中冠[3] 关健华[3] 黄兴友[4,5] ZHENG Shi;WANG Guan;LIN Zhong-guan;GUAN Jian-hua;HUANG Xing-you(Liaoning Meteorological Equipment Support Center,Shenyang 110166,China;Liaoning Branch Center of China Meteorological Administration Training Center,Shenyang 110166,China;Liaoning Meteorological Service Center,Shenyang 110166,China;Collaborative Innovation Center of Meteorological Disaster Forecast and Warning and Evaluation,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Key Laboratory of Aerosol and Cloud Precipitation,China Meteorological Administration,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省气象装备保障中心,辽宁沈阳110166 [2]中国气象局气象干部培训学院辽宁分院,沈阳110166 [3]辽宁省气象服务中心,辽宁沈阳110166 [4]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044 [5]中国气象局气溶胶与云降水重点开放实验室,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2018年第6期102-107,共6页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划863项目(2007AA061901);国家自然科学基金(40775029)共同资助

摘　　要：利用1961—2013年中国726个气象站降水数据,以极端强降水的强度及频数分别定义强降水,采用旋转经验正交函数(REOF)法、小波分析和M-K检验法分析中国近50 a强降水的空间和时间变化特征。结果表明:以极端强降水的强度定义强降水指标,将高荷载值集中分为四个区域,华中和华东部分地区,华东、华中及华南部分地区,华东和华中部分地区,西南部分地区。各区强降水事件呈显著的增加趋势(P<0.05)。各区强降水突变时间基本一致,均发生在20世纪80年代初,四个区域最强的能量波动时间分别为1995—2005年、1997—2010年、1996—2010年、1961—2013年。以极端强降水的频数定义强降水指标,分析出第二模态的华中和华东部分地区强降水事件呈现显著增多趋势(P<0.1)。Heavy precipitation was defined separately according to the intensity and frequency of extremely heavy precipitation based on the precipitation data obtained from 726 meteorological stations in China from 1961 to 2013.The spatial and temporal variations of heavy precipitation over China in the recent 50a were analyzed using the methods of Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function(REOF),wavelet analysis,and the Mann-Kendall trend test.An indicator for heavy precipitation was defined by the intensity of extremely heavy precipitation.Based on this indicator,four regions with high load values are distinguished,most regions concentrate in the middle of eastern China and the other in the southern and southwestern China.Heavy precipitation events in different regions increase significantly(p<0.05),all with an abrupt change in the early 1980s.The strongest energy fluctuation over the four regions occurs in the periods of 1995-2005,1997-2010,1996-2010,and 1961-2013,respectively.The other indicator for heavy precipitation defined by the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation shows that the heavy precipitation events increase significantly in some regions of the middle and eastern China in the second EOF mode(P<0.1).

关 键 词：强降水 REOF MANN-KENDALL检验 小波分析 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]