政府支出、产业结构与经济增长  

Government Spending,Industrial Structure and Economic Growth

作　　者：李彦龙 LI Yanlong(School of Economics and Business Administration,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院,北京100875

出　　处：《中南财经政法大学学报》2019年第1期109-117,160,共10页Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

基　　金：国家统计局统计科学研究一般项目"大数据视角下的资源型城市经济转型研究"(2015LY35)

摘　　要：基于2007～2016年的省级面板数据,构建对称和非对称倒"U"方程检验民生支出对经济增长的影响以及产业结构对其效果的影响,对最优民生支出和偏离最优规模的效率损失进行测度,然后研究消费和生产性支出对经济增长的影响以及产业结构对其效果的影响。研究结果表明:民生支出与经济增长之间存在非对称倒"U"关系,多数省份低于最优规模,但正向最优规模靠拢;产业结构会提高最优民生支出规模,东部和中部地区的民生支出规模低于最优规模,但西部地区已经达到甚至超过了最优规模,偏离最优民生支出的效率损失从东、中到西依次递减;消费和生产性支出对经济增长的影响为负,产业结构对消费性支出效果的影响不显著,但会减轻生产性支出的抑制效应;产业升级对经济增长的促进作用会随着民生和生产性支出的扩张而增大,但受消费性支出扩张的影响很小。Based on the panel data of 29 provinces from 2007 to 2016,the symmetric and asymmetric inverted"U"curve model is built to study the effect of livelihood spending on economic growth and the role of industrial structure in it.The effect of consumption and productive spending and the role of industrial structure in it are also studied.The results show that there is an asymmetry inverted"U"relationship between likelihood spending and economic growth.Most provinces are under the optimal scale,but they are approaching the optimal.The optimal scale depends on industrial structure,such as eastern and central regions are lower than the optimal scale,but western regions are higher than it.The efficiency loss which deviates from the optimal scale decreases from East,Middle to West.The effects of consumption and productive spending on economic are negative,but industrial structure can only alleviate the negative effect of productive spending.Also,the effect of industrial structure on economic can be strengthened with the expansion of livelihood and productive spending,but the role of consumption spending is limited.

关 键 词：政府支出 产业结构 经济增长 最优政府支出规模 

分 类 号：F812.45[经济管理—财政学]