“两轮限购”对住房价格的动态影响  

The Dynamic Influence of "Two-round Purchase Restriction" on Housing Price

作　　者：陈淑云[1] 王翔翔 王佑辉[1] Chen Shuyun;Wang Xiangxiang;Wang Youhui(School of Economics and Business Administration,Central China Normal University,Wuhan 430079)

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学经济与工商管理学院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《华中师范大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2019年第1期38-49,共12页Journal of Central China Normal University:Humanities and Social Sciences

基　　金：2018年住房与城乡建设部住房改革与发展司项目"优化住房供给结构研究"

摘　　要：在因城施策的宏观调控背景下,部分城市通过出台限购政策,落实"房住不炒"的精神,本文利用2010-2018年70个大中城市住房价格月度数据,采用倾向得分匹配的双重差分模型分别考察了两轮限购政策对不同类型住房价格的动态影响。研究发现:限购政策短时间内能够抑制新建住宅房价,尤其是大户型住房价格上涨,但却无法有效控制二手房房价上涨;同时对比两轮限购政策的效果,发现第二轮限购政策的效果明显弱于第一轮,说明限购政策只能作为地方政府短时间内控制房价过快上涨的过渡性政策。因此,要有效控制住房价格上涨,需稳定市场预期,建立租购并举的住房新制度。Under the background of macroeconomic regulation and city-specific policies, parts of cities carry out the spirit of "housing is for living in, not for speculation" by purchase restriction policy. The study uses 70 large and medium cities housing prices monthly data from 2010 to 2018, to inspect the dynamic effects of the "two rounds of purchase restriction" policies on different housing prices by PSM-DID. The study finds that, the purchase restriction policy can restrain the price of newly-built housing in a short period of time, especially the large dewelling-size housing, but cannot effectively control the price of second-hand housing; By comparing the two rounds of purchase restriction policies simultaneously, it finds that the effect of the second round is significantly weaker than the first one, indicating that the purchase restriction policy can only serve as a transitional policy for local governments to control the excessively rapid rise of housing prices in a short time. Therefore, in order to effectively control the rise of housing prices, it is necessary to stabilize market expectations and establish a new housing system which encourages both renting and purchasing.

关 键 词：限购政策 房价 倾向得分匹配 倍差法 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济]