区域铁路网趋稳规模测算方法  

An estimation method of regional railway network scale

作　　者：韩采华 HAN Caihua(School of traffic and transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《铁道科学与工程学报》2019年第1期249-256,共8页Journal of Railway Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2018YFB1201403)

摘　　要：以区域铁路客货运输量为中间载体,将区域铁路网规模测算问题划分为2阶段,分别建立数学规划模型进行求解,即第1阶段考虑区域经济发展、运输需求、服务人口数量和产业需求等因素,确定区域经济发展稳定状态下的合理区域铁路客货运量,在此基础上,进一步考虑国土系数、线路展开系数等因素,分析铁路客货运量与合理区域铁路网规模的内在联系和规律,从而最终确定适配的区域铁路网趋稳规模。以长江中下游地区为例进行实证分析,通过区域铁路发展特征对模型参数进行合理标定后计算,发现其所需区域铁路网总体规模为60 366 km,而目前区域内铁路网规模仅为22 642 km,不满足率高达62.49%,因此,急需加快该区域内的铁路网建设以保障和促进该区域社会经济的健康快速发展。Taking the regional railway passenger and freight volume as a bridge,this paper proposed a two-stage method to measure and calculate the scale of regional railway network,each stage has its planning model and solution approach.In the first stage,the reasonable passenger and freight volume of regional railway network under a stable economy development status was determined on account of regional economy,transportation require,number of served people and industrial demand.Then the inherent relationship and law between the railway passenger and freight volume and reasonable scale of regional railway network was analyzed to determine the adaptive scale of regional railway network finally by adding the factors of land coefficient and line expansion coefficient.Furthermore,the empirical analysis was proceeded with the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River,and its scale result of regional railway network was about 60 366 km but its current scale was 22 642 km.So it is urgent to accelerate the railway construction in this region to ensure and promote its economy development owing to its high unsatisfied rate of 62.49%.

关 键 词：铁路规划 区域铁路网规模 铁路客货运量 规划模型 

分 类 号：U412[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]