国际货币的政治逻辑——基于美元与人民币的实证分析  

The Political Logic of International Currency——Based on the Empirical Analysis of Dollar and RMB

作　　者：罗成[1,2] 赵淳 杨娇兰 LUO Cheng;ZHAO Chun;YANG Jiaolan(School of Finance,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang,Guizhou 550025,China;Shenzhen Institute of System Reform,Shenzhen,Guangdong 518048,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学金融学院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]深圳市体制改革研究会,广东深圳518048

出　　处：《金融教育研究》2019年第1期3-17,共15页Research of Finance and Education

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"人民币国际化与一带一路新丝绸之路的战略融合及其国际政治经济效应"(15BJL078)

摘　　要：国际货币是一个利益与权力的矛盾统一体,其政治逻辑在于利益最大化与获取更多货币权力,利益与权力的对立统一及其双向动态转化过程构成了国际货币关系。通过对国际货币的政治结构、制衡策略与博弈机制的研究,分析了美元与人民币的政治决策、货币政治结构、货币制衡策略、以及三种货币博弈机制。研究通过实证分析美元与人民币的货币关系,揭示了国际货币的政治结构演化遵循从低级到高级、从霸权到民主,即从货币霸权到寡头竞合,再到货币协作的规律。International currency is a contradictory unity of interests and power,its political logic is to maximize profits and gain more monetary power,the unity of opposites between interest and power and its two-way dynamic transformation constitute the international monetary relations.Through the study of the international monetary political structure,balance strategy and game mechanism;this paper analyzes the political decision-making,monetary political structure,currency balance strategy and three kinds of currency game mechanism between us dollar and RMB.It is found that the political structure of international currency evolves from low level to high level,from hegemony to democracy,that is,from currency hegemony to oligarchy competition and cooperation,and then to currency cooperation.An empirical analysis of the monetary relationship between the us dollar and the RMB reveals the development law of international monetary politics.

关 键 词：国际货币政治 利益博弈 权力制衡 政治结构 博弈机制 

分 类 号：F821.6[经济管理—财政学]