改革开放以来中国工业投资存在结构红利现象吗?——基于偏离份额法的实证分析  

Is There a Structural Bonus Phenomenon in China's Industrial Investment Since the Reform and Opening-up?——Empirical Analysis Based on Shift-share Analysis

作　　者：昌忠泽[1] 毛培[2] 张杰 CHANG Zhongze;MAO Pei;ZHANG Jie(Institute for Finance and Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;School of Economics,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of China’s Economic Reform & Development,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学财经研究院,北京100081 [2]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100081 [3]中国人民大学中国经济改革与发展研究院,北京100872

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2019年第1期112-122,共11页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(15JZD011);北京社科基金北京财经研究基地重点项目(17JDYJA005);中央财经大学"中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金";中国人民大学2018年度"中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)的特色发展引导专项资金"

摘　　要：本文基于偏离份额法对工业投资的"结构红利假说"进行了检验。研究发现:(1)总资本生产率增长率主要来源于产业或各省份工业的内部增长效应,结构变迁效应并不显著,结构红利对经济增长的推动只是阶段性现象。(2)从三大产业视角来看,1979—2015年总资本生产率增长率的主要来源是产业内部增长效应;静态效应对总资本生产率增长率的贡献负值居多,说明结构红利现象不明显,但2011年以来连续呈现结构红利现象;动态效应在整个时间段内正值居多;在三大产业中,第二产业对总资本生产率增长率的贡献最大。(3)从分省视角来看,1994—2015年总资本生产率增长率的主要来源是各省份工业的内部增长效应;静态效应对总资本生产率增长的贡献负值居多,22年时间里只有6年出现结构红利现象;这一时期动态效应对总资本生产率增长率的贡献正值居多。Based on shift-share analysis,this paper tests the structural bonus hypothesis from the angle of three major industries and sub-provinces.The result shows:(1)Whether from the perspective of three industries or from the perspective of sub-provinces,the growth rate of total capital productivity mainly comes from the internal growth effects of industries or provinces and municipalities,but the structural change effect(i.e.the structural bonus hypothesis)is not significant.The promotion of structural dividend to economic growth is only a phased phenomenon.(2)From the perspective of three major industries,the main source of the growth rate of total capital productivity from 1979 to 2015 is the growth effect within the industry,and the contribution of static effect to the growth rate of total capital productivity is mostly negative,which indicates that the phenomenon of structural bonus is not obvious.But since 2011,the phenomenon of structural bonus appears continuously;the dynamic effect is mostly positive in the whole time period;among the three major industries,the secondary industry has the biggest contribution to the growth rate of total capital productivity.(3)From the perspective of sub-provinces and municipalities,the main source of the growth rate of total capital productivity is the internal growth effects of industry in each province and municipality,and the contribution of static effect to the growth rate of total capital productivity is mostly negative,and only six years of structural bonus appear in 22 years.The dynamic effect of this period contributed to the growth rate of total capital productivity.Finally,the paper puts forward the relevant policy recommendations to excavate the structural bonus.

关 键 词：工业投资 结构红利 要素流动 改革开放 经济增长模式 偏离份额法 总资本生产率 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]