中国货币供给内生性研究——基于改进模型的实证分析  

Endogenous Study on China's Money Supply——An Empirical Analysis Based on Improved Model

作　　者：马方方[1] 胡朝阳 Ma Fangfang;Hu Zhaoyang(School of Economics,Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China)

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100070

出　　处：《金融理论探索》2019年第1期21-30,共10页Exploration of Financial Theory

基　　金：北京市教育委员会重点项目"资产型通货膨胀与货币政策选择问题研究"(SZ201310038022)

摘　　要：随着金融的发展,中国货币供给日益表现出内生特征,成为影响货币政策选择的重要因素。针对国内外以往文献中存在的货币供给内生性研究框架缺陷、模型变量选取随意性大、部分指标具有不稳定性等问题,首先进行理论框架构建,进而在基础变量选取和数据处理方法等方面做出改进。选取M2、GDP、CPI和现金漏损率、准备金率作为基础变量,从货币需求和供给两个角度构建影响货币供给内生性因素的模型。在此基础上运用中国1997—2016年的相关数据,通过回归分析法对中国货币供给的影响因素进行实证研究。结果显示:模型符合一般经济意义和中国现阶段的实际情况,表明货币供给具有日益显著的内生性。最后,分析货币供给内生性加强的现实原因,即经济结构、货币供给模式的转变以及金融体系的不断深化。基于此,从建立监测机制、完善市场化利率体系、促进经济健康发展三个角度提出提升货币政策效率的建议。With the development of finance, China’s money supply has increasingly shown endogenous characteristics and has become an important factor affecting the choice of monetary policy. In response to research frame inadequacy on endogenous money supply from domestic and international research, random selection of model variations and instability of part indicators, the paper firstly focused on the establishment of theoretical frame and then on the improvement of selection of variables and data processing methods. M2, GDP, CPI and capital leakage rate and required reserve ratio are taken as the basic variables to construct a model that affects the money supply factor. On the basis of this model,relevant data from1997 to 2016 were selected and the volatility data was smoothed, and the regression analysis method is used to empirically analyze the influencing factors of current Chinese money supply.The results show that the model is in line with the general economic significance and the actual situation in China. It also reveals the increasingendogeneity of money supply. Finally, the reasons for the endogenous of money supply are analyzed——the transformation of the economic structure,the money supply model,and the deepening of the financial system.Then, suggestions for improving the monetary policy framework are proposed from the perspectives of establishing a monitoring mechanism, improving the market-based interest rate system, and promoting healthy economic development.

关 键 词：货币供给 货币需求 内生性模型 货币政策 

分 类 号：F822.1[经济管理—财政学]