贸易政策不确定性、关税约束承诺与出口稳定性  

Trade Policy Uncertainty,Tariff Binding Commitment and Export Stability

作　　者：周定根[1] 杨晶晶[1] 赖明勇[1] Zhou Dinggen;Yang Jingjing;Lai Mingyong

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院

出　　处：《世界经济》2019年第1期51-75,共25页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71420107027;71373070);湖南省自然科学基金(2018JJ2069)的资助

摘　　要：本文以中国加入WTO后企业出口所面临的贸易政策不确定性大幅下降为切入点,从信号传递机制和风险调整机制分析其对出口持续时间的作用机制。经验研究结果发现,贸易政策不确定性下降有助于提升出口持续时间,改善出口稳定性。企业在面临贸易政策不确定性时适度地等待进入时机有助于提高后续出口的稳定性,但过度的等待会适得其反。本文还从市场竞争的再分配效应分析贸易政策不确定性下降的异质性影响,发现核心产品的出口稳定性有所改善,而非核心产品则加速退出出口,企业的出口产品组合逐渐向核心产品集中。此外,高质量、高价格和差异化产品的出口稳定性有所提高,而低质量、低价格和同质化产品逐渐被淘汰。This paper aims to study the impact of the decline in trade policy uncertainty faced by enterprises since China's entry into the WTO on export stability.We construct the mechanism of the effect of declining trade policy uncertainty on the duration of exports from signal transmission and risk adjustment mechanisms.Empirical results show that declining trade policy uncertainty contributes to increasing the duration of exports and improving their stability.In the face of trade policy uncertainty,a moderate wait for entry by exporting firms helps to improve the stability of subsequent exports,but excessive waiting is counterproductive.In analysing the heterogeneity influence on declining trade policy uncertainty from the reallocation effect of market competition,we find that the export stability of core products improves,while the exit of export is accelerating for non-core products.We also find that differentiated,high quality and high prices products increase their stability when exported,while homogenous,low quality and low price products are gradually disappearing.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 出口稳定性 再分配效应 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]