水库汛限水位动态控制域风险分析及方案优选  

Risk analysis on dynamic control domain of reservoir flood limited water level and its scheme optimization

作　　者：朱昊阳 黄炜斌[1] 瞿思哲 李京 ZHU Haoyang;HUANG Weibin;QU Sizhe;LI Jing(College of Water Resource and Hydropower,Sichuan University,Chengdu610041,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学水利水电学院,四川成都610041

出　　处：《水利水电技术》2018年第12期134-140,共7页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家电网公司总部科技项目"西南电网雅砻江风光水互补优化调度策略研究"(SGSCDK00XTJS1700047)

摘　　要：针对负责下游防洪及发电任务的水库存在的静态汛限水位的弃水浪费、难以确定汛限水位动态控制域的风险分布、汛限水位动态控制域内不同起调水位的防洪兴利任务难以协调这三个动态控制问题,以预泄约束为基础,结合贝叶斯理论分析风险、模糊信息熵物元评价方法优选方案,得出高效且易被广泛应用的方案确定模型。以大渡河瀑布沟水库为例进行计算,确定瀑布沟水库汛限水位上限值为844. 7 m,并通过流域预报净雨的误差分布分析确定该水位是安全的。最后利用考虑权重后的风险率、增发电量、满发流量三个指标对不同起调水位的方案进行优选,确定844. 7 m的上限值为综合考虑后能够在保证原设计防洪标准的基础上提升经济效益的最优方案。该计算模型可用于指导水库的实时调度。Aiming at three problems,i.e.waste abandoned water at the static flood-limited water level,difficult determination of the risk distribution in the dynamic control domain of flood-limited water level and difficult coordination of flood control and impounding for beneficial use at different regulating water levels within the dynamic control domain of flood-limited water level,from the reservoir for the tasks of both the downstream flood control and power generation,the relevant operation scheme is optimized through combining Bayes risk analysis with fuzzy information entropy matter-element evaluation method on the basis of constrained pre-discharge capacity,and then a model for determining the efficient and widely used scheme is established.By taking Pubugou Reservoir in Daduhe River Basin as the study case,it is calculated and determined that the upper limit value of the flood-limited water level of the reservoir is 844.7 m,while the water level is determined to be safe through the analysis made on the error distribution of the predicted net rainfall.Finally,the schemes for different regulating water levels are optimized with three indexes,i.e.the risk rate,increased power generation and flow rate for full power-generation after the consideration of their weights,thus the upper limit value of 844.7 m is determined to be the optimal scheme that can enhance the economic benefit on the basis of ensuring the flood control standard of the original design after a comprehensive consideration.This calculation model can be used to guide the real-time operation the reservoir.

关 键 词：水库调度 汛限水位动态控制域 风险分析 模糊信息熵物元评价法 经济效益 

分 类 号：TV697.11[水利工程—水利水电工程]