SWCWARMS模式对巴中地区预报能力的检验  

The Verification of SWCWARMS Model in Bazhong of China

作　　者：王鸽[1] 曾琳 李雄 李语 刘兰 刘一二 屠妮妮[1] WANG Ge;ZENG Lin;LI Xiong;LI Yu;LIU Lan;LIU Yier;TU Nini(Institute of Plateau Meteorology,CMA/Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,CMA,Chengdu 610072,China;Pingchang Meteorological,Pingchang 636400,China;Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害省重点实验室,成都610072 [2]四川省平昌县气象局,平昌636400 [3]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100083

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2018年第4期35-40,共6页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：巴中市气象局科学技术研究开发课题(2017-009)

摘　　要：应用巴中地区218个自动气象观测站2016年6～8月逐日的24h累积雨量,采取基于客观统计的检验方法,针对24h累积雨量,采取TS评分、BIAS评分和空报率对比分析了SWCWARMS模式和EC细网格模式在巴中地区的预报能力。研究结果表明:(1)从降水落区来看,两个模式都对雨带的移动都有较好的预报能力;(2)从降水TS评分看,SWCWARMS模式在各量级上的TS评分都优于EC模式;(3)从降水BIAS评分看,EC模式容易漏报中雨及以上量级的降水,而SWCWARMS模式则对大暴雨的预报有较大的空报;(4)从逐月评估结果看,6月和7月SWCWARMS模式较EC模式有更好的预报效果,8月两者差异不大。总体而言,SWCWARMS模式在巴中地区的预报效果优于EC模式。Using the 24-hour cumulative rainfall of 218 automatic meteorological observatories in Bazhong from June to August of 2016,based on objective statistical methods,the prediction ability of the precipitation in Bazhong in 2016 of SWCWARMS model and EC model were evaluated and compared.The results show that:(1)Both of the SWCWARMS and EC model have good prediction ability for the rain band movement;(2)The TS score of SWCWARMS model has better performance than that of the EC model in all scales;(3)The EC model has larger omission rate in moderate to heavy rain forecast,while the SWCWARMS model has higher empty rate in heavy rain forecast;(4)The TS score of SWCWARMS model has better forecast ability than EC model in June and July.The SWCWARMS model is superior than EC model in the prediction of Bazhong area.

关 键 词：SWCWARMS模式 TS评分 巴中 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]