基于计量经济学模型的福建省旅游收入影响因素分析  

Analysis of Affecting Factors of Tourism Income in Fujian Based on Econometric Model

作　　者：陈曼琳 陈贵松[1] 林碧虾[1] 郑才亮 CHEN Man-lin;CHEN Gui-song;LIN Bi-xia;ZHENG Cai-liang(College of Management,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学管理学院,福州350002

出　　处：《科技和产业》2019年第1期20-25,共6页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：福建省滨海生态旅游实现路径和模式研究(KHF180005)

摘　　要：旅游业收入在整个福建省国民经济收入中占据越来越重要的地位。基于计量经济学模型,收集了2007—2017年间福建省旅游相关数据,并以福建省国内旅游收入为因变量,选取福建省接待国内旅游人数、来自国内游客人均消费、福建省居民消费价格指数、福建省公路通车里程和A级景区个数作为相应解释变量进行多元线性回归,继而检验参数,并进行逐步回归修正,最后得出结论:福建省接待的国内旅游人数和国内人均消费以及福建省居民消费价格指数是影响福建省国内旅游收入最主要的因素,并基于此提出福建省提高旅游收入的建议措施。Tourism has gradually entered a period of stable growth from spontaneous to conscious,from germination to prosperity.In the past 30 years,Fujian's tourism industry has entered a new stage of development,and the tourism income has occupied an increasingly important position in Fujian's national economic income.Based on the econometric model,this paper collects the tourism-related data of Fujian Province from 2007 to 2017,and takes the domestic tourism income of Fujian Province as the dependent variable,selects the number of domestic tourists received in Fujian Province,the per capita consumption of domestic tourists,the consumer price index of Fujian Province,the road mileage of Fujian Province and the number of A-class scenic spots.As the corresponding explanatory variable,the multiple linear regression is used to test the parameters,and then the stepwise regression correction is carried out.Finally,the conclusion is drawn that the number of domestic tourists received in Fujian Province,the domestic per capita consumption and the consumer price index of Fujian residents are the most important factors affecting the domestic tourism income of Fujian Province,and based on this,the paper puts forward the blessing.Suggestions for improving tourism revenue are proposed.

关 键 词：计量经济学模型 国内旅游收入 多元线性回归 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]