北京入境旅游需求与影响因素的长短期效应  

Beijing Inbound Tourism Demand and Long or Short Effects of Influence Factors

作　　者：李祗辉[1] LI Zhihui(Tourism Department,Beijing Institute of Petrochemical Technology,Beijing 102617,China)

机构地区：[1]北京石油化工学院人文社科学院,北京102617

出　　处：《重庆交通大学学报（社会科学版）》2019年第1期69-74,共6页Journal of Chongqing Jiaotong University:Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：北京石油化工学院优秀责任教授和管理专家资助项目"外国游客来京旅游市场拓展战略研究"(BIPT-POPME-2015)

摘　　要：利用协整检验和误差修正模型,实证考察北京入境旅游需求与影响因素的长短期效应。在最终的长期模型中,北京入境旅游需求与国际航线数和汇率之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系;在短期模型中,多种影响因素都会引致入境旅游需求的变化,但这种短期波动恢复到长期稳定关系的时间会很快。实证强烈支持了2003年发生的"非典"疫情、2008年开始的全球金融危机和2012年起恶化的雾霾等因素对北京入境旅游需求的负面影响。北京入境旅游需求只受到第一季度的季节因素影响,其他季度的季节性影响并不显著。The purpose of this study was to analyze the Beijing inbound tourism demand and long or short effects of influence factors by using Johansen Cointegration Test and Error Correction Model.The results showed that in the Cointegrating equation,there is a long-term equilibrium and stable relationship between Beijing inbound tourism demand and international airlines and exchange rates,but GDP and CPI are not included.In the error correction equation,a variety of influence factors with lag time will lead to changes in inbound tourism demand,but the short-term volatility will return to a long-term stable relationship quickly.The empirical evidence strongly supports the negative impact of the SARS in 2003,the global financial crisis from 2008 and the worsening haze factors from 2012 on the inbound tourism demand in Beijing.At the same time,the study showed that the inbound tourism demand in Beijing is only affected by seasonal factors in the first quarter,and the impact of other quarters is not significant.

关 键 词：入境旅游 旅游需求 影响因素 误差修正模型 

分 类 号：F590[经济管理—旅游管理]