我国农业保险对农业生产影响效应的实证分析——基于精准扶贫视角  

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Insurance on Agricultural Production in China——from the Perspective of Targeted Poverty-alleviation

作　　者：李勇斌 谢涛 杜先培 梁晟 LI Yongbin;XIE Tao;DU Xianpei;LIANG Sheng(Business college,Guangxi University,Guangxi nanning)

机构地区：[1]广西大学商学院,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《当代金融研究》2019年第1期109-122,共14页Journal of Contemporary Financial Research

基　　金：广西研究生教育创新计划资助项目(编号为:YCSW2018016);国家自然科学"信用制度与农地金融制度相互关系模型及其在西部地区的实证检验研究"(项目批准号:70563001)部分研究成果~~

摘　　要：基于我国31省(自治区、直辖市)2007-2015年面板数据,本文从灾前与灾后两个维度,首先理论分析了农业保险对农业生产的影响机理,再运用系统GMM模型和门槛效应模型实证检验了农业保险对农业生产的线性和非线性影响。研究结果表明:农业保险灾前对农业生产具有显著的负向影响,灾后具有显著的正向影响,但农业保险对农业生产的灾后正效应大于灾前负效应,所以总体上农业保险促进了农业生产水平的提高;农业保险灾前影响效应对农业生产存在显著的门槛特征,而灾后影响效应对农业生产不存在门槛特征;农业保险对农业生产的影响依赖于农业生产风险水平,且农业保险对农业生产的促进作用随风险水平提高而下降。另外,人力资本、农村劳动力转移、农业生产风险水平均对农业生产有显著影响,而人均农作物播种面积、农业生产现代化水平则影响不明显。Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(autonomous regions,municipalities)in China from 2007 to 2015,this paper firstly analyzes the impact mechanism of insurance on agricultural production from the two dimensions of pre-disaster and post-disaster,and the system GMM and threshold effect model are used to empirically test the linear and non-linear effects of insurance on agricultural production.The results show that agricultural insurance promoted the agricultural output.The pre-disaster impact of insurance has a significant threshold for agricultural production,and post-disaster effects of insurance have no threshold.The impact of insurance on agricultural production depends on the level of agricultural production risk,and the role of which diminishes as the risk increases.

关 键 词：精准扶贫 农业保险 农业生产 影响效应 系统GMM模型 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F842.6[经济管理—保险]