“十三五”以来中国禽肉市场形势分析与展望  

China's Poultry Market since the 13th Five-Year Plan and Its Prospect

作　　者：张莉[1] Zhang Li(Key Lab of Digital Agricultural Early Waring Technology and System,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业部智能化农业预警技术重点开放实验室/中国农业科学院智能化农业预警技术与系统重点开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《农业展望》2018年第12期11-15,共5页Agricultural Outlook

基　　金：农业农村部农产品监测预警项目;中国农业科学院基本科研业务费项目(Y2016ZK18)

摘　　要："十三五"以来,中国禽肉市场波动较大,价格先涨后跌再涨,禽肉产品进出口的波动幅度也有所增加,进口、出口年际间有增有减;禽料比价波动剧烈,肉鸡养殖总体保持盈利水平(2017年流感疫情期间除外)。预计后期禽肉市场受白羽肉鸡祖代种鸡引进受限影响产能将被动调减,受消费需求变化、成本上升驱动价格将以涨为主,肉禽产业将继续推进农业供给侧结构性改革,致力于打造品牌,积极开拓国内外新市场。Since the 13th Five-Year Plan,the poultry market has fluctuated greatly in China,with the price rising first,then falling and last rising again.The range of fluctuation in poultry product's import and export also has increased,even import and export among each year have increased or decreased.Poultry feed price fluctuated sharply,and generally broiler farming remained profitable(except during the flu epidemic in 2017).In the future,it is expected that restricted by introduction of progenitor broiler breeder for white feather broilers,the capacity of the poultry production will be passive reduction,and driven by changes in consumer demand and rising costs,the prices of poultry will rise mainly.The poultry industry should continue promoting agricultural supply-side structural reform,and strive to build brand and actively explore new markets at home and abroad.

关 键 词："十三五" 禽肉 生产 贸易 市场形势 展望 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济] F323.7