相似台风分析在广西水情预警预报中的应用  

Application of similar typhoon analysis in early forecasting and prediction in Guangxi

作　　者：吴立愿 刘文丽 廖文凯 黄建波 Wu Liyuan;Liu Wenli;Liao Wenkai;Huang Jianbo

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区水文水资源局,南宁530023

出　　处：《中国水利》2019年第3期48-50,47,共4页China Water Resources

基　　金：广西中小河流洪水预报关键技术研究(桂科合1599005-2-3)

摘　　要：台风是一种破坏力极强的灾害性天气系统,提前掌握台风可能带来的雨量、降雨分布及可能影响的江河及洪水情况是做好水情预警预报的关键。广西台风档案管理系统通过数据收集、数据筛选、参数确定等完成影响广西的台风数据、信息集成及查询。在近年台风影响期间水文预报分析中,广西通过该系统查询历史相似台风,结合降水数值预报和前期雨水情,预测出台风对江河水情的影响,为防御台风赢得了宝贵时间。Typhoon is regarded as one of the harmful events and catastrophic weather systems. Early warning and forecast of possible rainfall and its distribution are crucial to understand its impact on river regimes and potentiality of floods. The typhoon data management system of Guangxi not only has functions of data provision, but also information set results query by means of data collection, selection and parameter determination. In recent years, the system has been used in hydrological forecasting and analysis during typhoon period, in order to find the similar typhoons in the history and get knowledge on its potential impact to river regime, combining with forecasting of precipitation and early-stage rainfall conditions in Guangxi Autonomous Region, which has brought us valuable time to make preparation for defensing typhoon disasters.

关 键 词：水文预报 台风 相似路径 查询 雨水情 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P412.13