公共养老金财政评估中的精算应用——以日本为例  

The Application of Actuarial Models in Financial Assessment of Public Pensions:A Case Study of Japan

作　　者：赵敬[1] 孙立娟[2] 鲁吴霜 Zhao Jing;Sun Lijuan;Lu Wushuang

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学外语学院 [2]对外经济贸易大学保险学院 [3]中国社会科学院研究生院

出　　处：《日本学刊》2019年第1期136-162,共27页Japanese Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"新疆民族地区人口结构变化与社会保障的福利效应研究"(编号:71663049);教育部人文社科基金项目"新疆农村人口结构变化对新型农村社会养老保险的影响研究"(编号:15XJJA790001);北京市社科基金项目"北京市试点建立失能老人社区看护服务体系研究"(编号:15SHB020)

摘　　要：精算是保障社会养老保险制度合理运行的重要手段。定期发布精算报告可以监测养老保险制度的运行情况,也可以成为政策决策的重要支撑。日本每五年进行一次公共养老金财政评估,并根据社会形势的变化和精算评估的结果不断对养老金制度进行调整。2014年日本公共养老金财政评估对未来经济形势进行了敏感性分析,并利用精算模型对养老金财政收支状况进行全面预测,模拟测算改革方案措施实施后的效果。探讨精算在日本公共养老金财政评估中的应用及效果,对中国建立社会养老保险精算报告制度具有借鉴意义。The actuarial science is an important instrument for ensuring the rational operation of the social insurance system.The regular release of actuarial reports,which acts a role in monitoring the operation of the pension insurance system,serves as a support for policy decision-making.Each of the five years,Japanese government conducts a public pension financial assessment,adjusting the pension system according to changes in the social situation and the results of actuarial assessments.In 2014,a financial assessment of Japanese public pension was conducted,in which the sensitivity of Japan’s economic prospects was analyzed,the pension revenue and expenditure was forecast and the effect of reform program was measured through applying the actuarial model.The application and effect of actuarial models in financial assessment of Japan’s public pension system provides a reference for China to establish an actuarial reporting system of social insurance.

关 键 词：公共养老金 财政评估 精算 少子老龄化 社会养老保险制度 

分 类 号：F843.13[经济管理—保险]