蛰伏待机:2019年大类资产配置展望  

Awaiting the Opportune Moment--An Outlook of Broad Asset Allocation in 2019

作　　者：谢亚轩[1] 张一平[1] 

机构地区：[1]招商证券研究发展中心

出　　处：《中国货币市场》2019年第2期49-54,共6页China Money

摘　　要：文章分析了推动市场避险情绪上升的内外部局势,指出贸易战、强美元、全球流动性面临拐点使得全球风险资产面临较大调整压力,也是当前稳增长政策面临较为明显的自我约束的重要原因。而受高宏观负债率、高资产价格及高环保成本等约束,稳增长政策短期内难以对冲贸易摩擦、房地产销售萎缩等国内经济下行压力。建议2019年大类资产配置应以防御为主,同时把握A股的阶段性机会。The article analyzes the internal and external situations that promote the rise of market risk aversion and points out that the trade war,the strong US dollar and the coming global liquidity inflection point may put great pressure on global risk assets,which also explains why the policies to maintain steady growth face obvious self-constraints.Yet with the constraints of high macro debt ratio,high asset prices and high environmental costs,in the short run,it is difficult for the policies to hedge the trade frictions and the economic downward pressure exerted by the decline of real estate sales.It is suggested that the broad asset allocation in 2019 should focus on defense,whilst should grasp the staged opportunities in the A-share market.

关 键 词：资产配置 展望 房地产销售 文章分析 风险资产 自我约束 环保成本 资产价格 

分 类 号：F832.33[经济管理—金融学]