由“P值困境”引发对“不育的”经济学反思  

An Introspection of“Infertile”Economics Triggered by the“ P-value Dilemma”

作　　者：程晓林 CHENG Xiao-lin(Henan University of Technology,Zhenzhou 450007,China)

机构地区：[1]河南工业大学,河南郑州450007

出　　处：《经济问题》2019年第1期17-26,共10页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71271159);河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2016BJJ064);河南工业大学国家社会科学基金培育项目(2017SKPY05)

摘　　要：美国《政治分析》杂志2018年初突然宣布禁用P值,由于P值应用广泛,事件使得社会科学研究者陷入"P值困境"。P值作为重要的统计变量,若此变量不值得信赖,那么现代以数学或统计为基础的社会科学理论都值得怀疑,尤以经济学为最。事实上经济学家在"数学是一门语言"的掩护下引入数学,其背后不乏深层次原因,有科学革命的影响,政治规避的动机及路径依赖的无奈。但数学在经济学的应用超越了语言的范畴,导致"数学谬误"的产生,进一步导致"不育的"经济学。从历史来看,数学在经济学中的应用大体可分为三个阶段,每个阶段都争议不断,"P值困境"的出现再次引发对经济学的反思,考查其哲学属性,价值取向及人本特征,是避免"数学滥用"并走出"P值困境"的必经之路。In early 2018,American Journal"Political Analysis"abruptly banned the p-value in regression table.Due to the wide application of this statistic variable,social science researchers fell into the"p-value dilemma".As an important statistical variable,if P-value is not trustworthy,the whole modern social science theory which are based on mathematics or statistics became doubtful,especially economics.Actually,economists introduced mathematics under the cover of"mathematics is a language".However,There were many deep reasons behind,including the influence of the scientific revolution,the motive of political evasion and the helplessness of path dependence.Unfortunately,the application of mathematics in economics goes beyond the scope of language,and resulting in"mathiness"and further leading to"infertile"economics.Historically,the application of mathematics in economics can be roughly divided into three periods,each period are full of controversy,nowadays,the emergence of"p-value dilemma"triggers reflection on economics once again,examining its philosophical attributes,research objects and value orientation became the only way to avoid"mathiness"and the"p-value dilemma"in the future.

关 键 词：P值困境 数学滥用 经济学数学化 

分 类 号：F091[经济管理—政治经济学]