DGM(2,1)模型在沉降预测中的应用  

Application of DGM(2,1) Model in Settlement Prediction

作　　者：石勇[1,2] 张西军 肖先华[1] Shi Yong;Zhang Xijun;Xiao Xianhua(Chongqing Survey Institute,Chongqing 401121,China;Shenyang Geotechnical Investigation&Surveying Research Institute,Shenyang 110004,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆市勘测院,重庆401121 [2]重庆市智能感知大数据产业技术协同创新中心,重庆401121 [3]沈阳市勘察测绘研究院,辽宁沈阳110004

出　　处：《城市勘测》2019年第1期158-160,共3页Urban Geotechnical Investigation & Surveying

基　　金：住房和城乡建设部科学技术项目(2015-K8-012)

摘　　要：结合沉降监测实例,对监测点的累计沉降量进行预测,结果表明传统的GM(1,1)模型、DGM(1,1)模型在对累计沉降量进行预测时,不能适应沉降速率变缓的情况,预测过程中没有顾及沉降加速度对预测值的影响,预测值严重偏离实测值,其偏离程度超出可以接受的范围,模型失效。DGM(2,1)模型可以很好地适应数据列的变化,预测过程中减弱了沉降加速度对预测值的影响,精度高于另外两种模型,预测值与实测值较为接近,表现出良好的预测效果。In this paper,the cumulative settlement of monitoring points were predicted with settlement monitoring examples,the results show that the traditional GM(1,1)model and DGM(1,1)model can't adapt to the slowdown of sedimentation rate when predicting the cumulative settlement,and the forecast value deviates seriously from the measured value,the effect of subsidence acceleration on prediction value is not taken into account in the prediction process,and the deviation degree is beyond acceptable,the scope of the model fails.DGM(2,1)model can adapt to the change of data column well with higher accuracy than the other two models,in the prediction process,the influence of subsidence acceleration on prediction is weakened,the predicted value is close to the measured value,and it shows good prediction results.

关 键 词：沉降监测 累计沉降量 DGM(2 1)模型 

分 类 号：TU196[建筑科学—建筑理论] TP183[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]