水资源承载力评价的Logistic集对分析模型及其应用  

Logistic Set Pair Analysis Model for Water Resources Carrying Capacity Assessment and Its Application

作　　者：刘童 杨晓华[1] 宋帆 LIU Tong;YANG Xiaohua;SONG Fan(State Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation,School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院水环境模拟国家重点实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》2019年第1期27-33,共7页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401305;2017YFC0506603);国家自然科学基金重点项目(41530635);国家自然科学基金面上项目(51679007)

摘　　要：在水资源危机日益加重的大背景下,采用基于线性隶属函数的水资源承载力评价模型处理复杂的实际问题时,往往对指标值变化的敏感度不高,迫切需要对现有研究模型进行改进。所以研究引进Logistic理论,提出一个用于水资源承载力评价的新模型——Logistic集对分析模型,并将该模型应用于吉林省2007—2016年的水资源承载力评价。评价结果显示:吉林省水资源承载力等级在较低和中等之间波动;与线性集对分析模型相比,Logistic集对分析模型能更加合理地考虑指标值的分布对水资源载荷的影响,同时评价结果又能在一定程度上反映指标值的分布,说明该模型是可靠和有效的。Under the background of the increasingly serious water resources crisis,the assessment model of water resources carrying capacity based on the linear membership function is often not sensitive to the change of index value in the face of complex problems in reality.So it is urgent to improve the existing research models.This study introduced the Logistic theory and put forward a new model for the assessment of water resources carrying capacity-Logistic set pair analysis model.This model was applied to the assessment of water resources carrying capacity in Jilin Province from 2007 to 2016.The results show:the grade of water resources carrying capacity in Jilin Province fluctuates between low and medium;compared with the linear set pair analysis model,the Logistic set pair analysis model can more reasonably consider the impact of the distribution of index values on the water resources load,while the evaluation results can reflect the distribution of index values to a certain extent,is a reliable and effective model.

关 键 词：水资源承载力 评价模型 LOGISTIC 集对分析 吉林省 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]