台胞入榕旅游与榕台经贸合作的耦合协调评价  

Coupling and Coordination Evaluation on Taiwan compatriots' Inbound Tourism in Fuzhou and Economic and Trade Cooperation between Fuzhou and Taiwan

作　　者：余坤 YU Kun(School of Public Administration,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350000,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学公共管理学院,福建福州350000

出　　处：《台湾农业探索》2018年第6期7-14,共8页Taiwan Agricultural Research

摘　　要：【目的/意义】实现台胞入榕旅游与榕台经贸合作高度耦合协调发展,对于福州区域经济发展有重要意义。【方法/过程】通过对2010—2016年台胞入榕旅游与榕台经贸合作进行耦合协调评价,并在此基础上运用软件Matlab R2018a建立GM (1,1)模型预测分析了2017—2020年台胞入榕旅游与榕台经贸合作综合得分。【结果/结论】结果表明:台胞入榕旅游综合得分高于榕台经贸合作,但台胞入榕旅游综合得分增长速度低于榕台经贸合作;ECFA与福州自贸区等政策提升了台胞入榕旅游与榕台经贸合作的耦合关联度与耦合协调度,榕台经贸合作的深化发展促进了福州对台旅游业的发展;在延续2010—2016年台胞入榕旅游与榕台经贸合作的发展趋势下,2020年台胞入榕旅游与榕台经贸合作综合得分较2016年分别上升了14.72%和237.39%。【Objective/Meaning】It is of great significance for the economic development of Fujian to achieve a highly coupled and coordinated relationship between Taiwan Residents tourism in Fuzhou and Fujian-Taiwan economic and trade cooperation.【Methods/Procedures】The coupling and coordination evaluation on Taiwan compatriots’tourism in Fuzhou and the economy and trade cooperation of both sides in 2010-2016 was conducted,and the comprehensive scores in 2017-2010 were predicted by establishing the GM(1,1)model with Matlab R2018a software.【Results/Conclusions】The results showed that:the comprehensive score of Taiwan compatriots inbound tourism to Fuzhou was higher than that of Fujian-Taiwan economic and trade cooperation,but the increasing rate of which was slower;ECFA,Fuzhou Free Trade Zone and other policies improved the coupling correlation degree and coupling coordination degree between Taiwan compatriots’inbound tourism to Fuzhou and economic-trade cooperation of both sides.The deepening development of economic and trade cooperation between Fujian and Taiwan promoted the tourism industry between Fuzhou and Taiwan.If the development trend of Taiwan compatriot inbound tourism and the economic cooperation between Taiwan and Fuzhou in 2010-2016 continued,the comprehensive score of the both would increase by 14.72%and 237.39%,respectively.

关 键 词：入境旅游 耦合 经贸合作 福州 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]