农业机械化水平对湖北农户耕地复种指数的影响  

Impact of agricultural mechanization level on farmers' cropping index in Hubei Province

作　　者：彭继权 吴海涛[1] 宋嘉豪 李孟丁 PENG Jiquan;WU Haitao;SONG Jiahao;LI Mengding(School of Business Administration,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,武汉430073

出　　处：《中国生态农业学报（中英文）》2019年第3期380-390,共11页Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71273281;71573277);湖北省人文社科重点研究基地项目(2018K008);四川省哲学社会科学重点研究基地项目(DYWH1811;SHZLYB1804)资助~~

摘　　要：耕地复种指数的提升对我国粮食安全战略实施和三农问题解决意义重大。为了考察农业机械化水平对湖北农户耕地复种指数的影响,以1 682份湖北农户调查数据为基础,通过运用IVTobit和IVProbit回归模型,探讨农业机械化水平对农户耕地复种指数的影响及其在不同类型农作物耕地间的差异性。研究结果表明:1)农业机械化水平每提升1%,耕地复种指数提高1.393%,粮食作物耕地复种指数提高0.988%,经济作物耕地复种指数提高2.160%。2)从不同类型农作物耕地复种意愿来看,农业机械化水平每提升1%,农户对粮食作物耕地复种意愿的概率提高3.100%,对经济作物耕地复种意愿的概率提高5.361%。从其他控制变量来看,户主教育、户主年龄、家庭非农收入占比、家庭转出土地、气温变化对农户耕地复种指数存在显著的负向影响;家庭规模、农作物品种数量、地区类型对农户耕地复种指数存在显著的正向影响。总之,农户农业机械化水平的提升对耕地复种有积极作用,特别对经济作物耕地复种指数的提升作用尤为明显。Increased multi-cropping index in cultivated lands is critical for food security strategies and issues concerning in agriculture,countryside and peasant communities in China.Presently,many studies exist on multiple cropping index.However,most of these studies are based on national statistics,with fewer studies on peasant household conditions.Multiple cropping of cultivated lands is the production activities of individual rural households.Therefore,the use of macro-statistical data had failed to adequately capture inherent heterogeneities in peasant conditions in different regions.Furthermore,it has limited research analysis to only the factors that affect multiple cropping index at macro scale.This has made it difficult to accurately analyze the driving factors at micro scale.Here,we used survey data from 1 682 peasant households in Hubei Province to investigate the impact of the level of agricultural mechanization on multiple cropping index at microscopic scale.To further avoid the possibility of endogeneity and sample selection bias in the model,we used IVTobit and IVProbit regression models to explore the impact of the level of agricultural mechanization on multiple-cropping index and the differences in various types of crops.The results showed that:1)ordinary least square(OLS)-estimation result without consideration for sample selection bias and endogeneity and processed result were quite different.This indicated that the original OLS regression model significantly underestimated the effect of the level of agricultural mechanization on peasant household conditions.Regression coefficients pointed out that the level of agricultural mechanization had significant positive impact on multiple cropping index.For every 1%increase in the level of agricultural mechanization,multiple cropping index increased by 1.393%.This confirmed the hypothesis that agricultural mechanization effectively reduced the time of agricultural production,ensured seasonality of multiple crops,maximized utilization of land and increased the d

关 键 词：农业机械化水平 农户行为 耕地 复种指数 IVTobit IVProbit 

分 类 号：F323.3[经济管理—产业经济]