政策干预、羊群行为与房地产价格波动  

Policy Intervention,Herd Behavior and Housing Price Fluctuations

作　　者：王丽艳 崔燚[1,2] 王振坡 WANG Li-yana;CUI Yia;CUI Yia(School of Economics and Management,Tianjin Chengjian University,Tianjin 300384,China;Research Center of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Collaborative Development, Tianjin Chengjian University,Tianjin 300384,China)

机构地区：[1]天津城建大学经济与管理学院,天津300384 [2]天津城建大学京津冀协同发展研究中心,天津300384

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2019年第3期111-118,共8页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(17BJY056);天津市教委社会科学重大项目(2017JWZD25);"十三五"天津市高等学校创新团队培养计划项目(TD13-5001)

摘　　要：明晰市场对调控政策的反应逻辑是增强政策的合理性、防范泡沫风险的前提,而目前政策调控房价波动的效果渐弱,且市场内以羊群行为为代表的非理性行为愈演愈烈。文章在不完全信息理论框架下分析了政策干预、羊群行为与房地产价格波动之间的关系,基于CSAD模型,利用35个大中城市2011-2016年"商品住宅"市场数据对三者关系进行实证分析,得出:商品住宅市场在市场收益率不同情况下皆存在明显的羊群行为,在调控政策不同时具有非对称性;调控政策紧缩短期内对羊群行为有催化作用,长期有明显抑制作用;调控政策宽松则一直有催化作用;住房市场中羊群行为对调控政策存在着过度反应现象。因此,从引导公众形成理性预期、增强政策的明确性和持久性、建设房地产市场长效机制等方面提出政策建议。behavior represented by herd behavior has become increasingly fierce in the market,clarifying the logic of market response to regulation is the premise to enhance the rationality of policies and prevent bubble risks. Under the framework of incomplete in. formation theory,this paper analyzes the relationship between policy intervention,herd behavior and housing price fluctua. tions. The paper,based on the CSAD model,makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between the three parties by using the data of commodity housing market in 35 large and medium cities from 2011 to 2016. The main conclusions are: Commodity housing market has obvious herding behavior under different market returns,which is asymmetric when the control policies are different;Control policy tightening has a catalytic role in herd behavior in the short run,and has an inhibitory effect in a longterm;The loose control policy has always played a catalytic role;The herd behavior of housing market has over reaction to the control policy. Therefore,the paper proposes policy recommendations from such aspects as guiding the public to form rational expectations,strengthening the persistence and pertinence of policies and constructing the long-term mechanism of real estate market,etc.

关 键 词：宏观调控政策 羊群行为 房地产价格 CSAD模型 

分 类 号：F062.6[经济管理—政治经济学] F201