ECMWF集合预报在安徽大别山区降水预报中的检验  

Verification of ECMWF ensemble prediction in precipitation forecast of Ta-pieh Mountains area in Anhui Province

作　　者：武英娇 杨浩[2] 钱仙桃 曹晋娟 李冰 WU Yingjiao;YANG Hao;QIAN Xiantao;CAO Jinjuan;LI Bing(Liuan Meteorological Bureau of Anhui Province,Liuan 237000;Institute of heavy rain of China MeteorologicalAdministration,Wuhan 430000)

机构地区：[1]安徽省六安市气象局,六安237000 [2]中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,武汉430000

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2019年第1期66-71,共6页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(91637211;4162010009);安徽省气象局2016年硕博士工作启动经费项目(RC201617)

摘　　要：利用2015年6月1日至8月31日ECMWF集合预报系统(EPS)51个成员的降水预报结果,基于安徽省大别山区12个代表站点1～3 d的逐12 h降水观测资料,采用TS评分、箱须图、泰勒图等方法,研究ECMWF集合预报降水结果在安徽省大别山区降水分级预报中的应用效果。主要结论如下:ECMWF集合降水预报中,08时起报的24 h降水量和20时起报的48 h降水量可参考性较大;降水分级检验中,晴雨预报正确率在70%以上,小雨和中雨的空报率较高,对大雨以上量级的预报能力相对较差;大型降水过程中,暴雨以上量级的预报需关注不同预报时效下降水量预报的变化趋势,个别成员对极端降水的表现也值得关注。Using the precipitation forecast data of 51 members of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) from June 1 to August 31, 2015, TS skill score, boxplot and Taylor diagram method are used to research the application effect of precipitation forecast by ECMWF ensemble prediction in the Ta-pieh Mountains area of Anhui Province based on the 1-3 days 12 h precipitation observation data of 12 representative sites in the Ta-pieh Mountains area. The main results are as follows. For the precipitation of ECMWF, the 24 h projected precipitation from 08:00 and the 48 h projected precipitation from 20:00 can be used for reference. In the precipitation classification test, the accuracy of rainfall forecast is more than 70%. There are high miss forecasts for light and moderate rain. The forecast ability of the magnitude of heavy rain is relatively poor. During the large-scale precipitation events, the trend of the forecast precipitation in different forecast times should be paid attention when forecasting the magnitude of precipitation above the heavy rain. Meanwhile, the performance of the individual members for extreme precipitation should be worthy of attention.

关 键 词：集合预报 大别山 预报检验 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]