基于优化赋权-未确知测度理论的尾矿干堆体失稳预测  

Instability Prediction of Dry-tailings Based on Optimized Weighting-uncertainty Measurement Theory

作　　者：王春祥 张钦礼[1] 张德明[1] 樊彪[1] WANG Chunxiang;ZHANG Qinli;ZHANG Deming;FAN Biao(School of Resources and Safety Engineering,Central South University,Changsha 410083,China)

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,长沙410083

出　　处：《有色金属工程》2019年第1期95-102,共8页Nonferrous Metals Engineering

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑计划课题资助(2015BAB14B01)~~

摘　　要：针对影响尾矿干堆体稳定性因素的复杂性和不确定性,为了更准确、合理地预测尾矿干堆体的稳定性,基于未确知测度理论,采用将层次分析法和信息熵值法确定各影响指标权重相结合的优化赋权规则,建立了尾矿干堆稳定性预测评价模型。模型涵盖了影响干堆体稳定性的6个定量因素和5个非定量因素,分别构建了各影响因素的未确知测度函数。利用优化赋权准则,分别计算各影响因素的权重值,然后采用置信度判别准则予以评定等级,最后综合分析得出干堆体稳定性评价结果。将该评价模型应用于河北某铁矿4个尾矿干堆体的稳定性评价,验证结果证明了预测结果与实际情况相符。Owing to complexity and uncertainty in the assessment of dry-tailings stability, the AHP and the entropy of information method are combined to count the weights of indexes for getting more accurate and reasonable results. The uncertainty measurement theory is used to make a synthetic assessment about the stability of dry-tailing. During the process, six quantitative influence factors and five qualitative influence factors are selected and uncertainty measurement functions are obtained based on all of the factors. The standard of optimized weights is used to calculate the weights of factors. On this basis, the stabilities of dry-tailings are estimated and analyzed by using the principles of confidence criterion. This evaluation model is applied to predict the stabilities of four dry-tailings in an iron mine in Hebei, and the prediction results are consistent with the actual situation.

关 键 词：尾矿干堆 优化赋权 未确知测度理论 稳定性 

分 类 号：TD325[矿业工程—矿井建设]