耕地再生与循环:中国粮食均衡的复种指数与生态安全  

Cultivated land regeneration and circulation: food balance,coverage index and ecological safety in China

作　　者：钟晓青[1,2] 薛蛟 何文[1,2] ZHONG Xiaoqing;XUE Jiao;HE Wen(School of Life Sciences,Sun Yat-sen University ,Guangzhou 510275,China;Institute of Landscape and Ecological Economic Planning,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学生命科学学院,广东广州510275 [2]中山大学园林及生态经济规划研究所,广东广州510275

出　　处：《再生资源与循环经济》2019年第2期12-18,共7页Recyclable Resources and Circular Economy

基　　金：国家哲学社会科学基金"可持续发展经济学研究""九五"重点项目(96AJB042);华南理工大学亚热带建筑国家重点实验室开放基金项目:"绿色空间研究";"低碳社区研究"(20070401;2010KB10);广东省自然科学基金项目"生态经济边缘效应研究"(974083)

摘　　要：从粮食供需均衡的两个方面,分析研究1949—2016年我国在粮食生产环节上的耕地面积、播种面积、单产、总产量等方面的过程和各种数量参数,以及从消费环节研究我国城市居民、农村居民的基本口粮需求、生活需求、生产需求和总需求的各项数量参数指标,并在此基础上,建立供需均衡的数量分析模型,分析各个年度的均衡结果,并探讨我国长期粮食安全问题。从1990—1999年,我国粮食供需总均衡逐渐出现"赤字",我国粮食的总需求量超过生产供给量。从根本上解决我国粮食安全问题,其中关键的因素是制订政策提高农民"种粮"的积极性,在现有耕地的基础上,严格促进复种指数的增加,起码从现在的0.9左右,增加到1.0～2.0。From two aspects of the equilibrium of supply and demand of grain,this paper analyzed food production in China from 1949 to 2016 of the total farmland area,planting area,yield,production process and various aspects such as the number of parameters,as well as from consumption link research basic ration demand of urban residents and rural residents,the life needs,the production requirements and the number of total demand parameters.On the equilibrium between supply and demand of China,the equilibrium results of each year were analyzed and China’s long-term food security was explored.From the period of 1990-1999,China's total balance of grain supply and demand had gradually appeared deficit,and the total demand for grain in China had exceeded production and supply.Fundamentally solving the problem of food security in China,the key factor is to formulate policies to increase farmers’enthusiasm for“grain growing”,and strictly promote the re-plantation indexes from 0.9 to 1.0-2.0.

关 键 词：耕地 播种面积 供需均衡 粮食生态安全 复种指数 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济] X37[环境科学与工程—环境工程]