我国玉米生产地位、优势与自给率分析  

ANALYSIS ON THE STATUS,SUPERIORITY AND SELF-SUFFICIENCY RATIO OF MAIZE IN CHINA

作　　者：陈印军[1] 王琦琪[1] 向雁[1] Chen Yinjun;Wang Qiqi;Xiang Yan(Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国农业资源与区划》2019年第1期7-16,共10页Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning

基　　金：中国农业科学院科技创新工程协同创新计划"东北黑土地地力提升与可持续利用技术:水土资源承载力分析"(CAAS-XTCX2016008-8)";中国工程院咨询研究项目"东北地区玉米种植面临的新形势与新挑战及其应对战略研究"(2016-XY-35);农业农村部农业法制建设与政策调研项目"基于农业资源台账的农用地资源评价研究"(0618213011124220)

摘　　要：[目的]系统分析我国玉米生产地位、优势和世界人口大国玉米自给率水平,提出未来我国玉米自给率目标及实现路径,为国家粮食安全决策提供参考。[方法]以1980—2017年我国玉米及小麦和水稻等主要粮食作物生产与进出口系列数据、2010—2017年世界人口大国玉米生产与进出口系列数据、我国玉米主产区及美国主要粮食作物生产成本数据、我国玉米主产区主要粮食作物灌溉用水数据、我国主要粮食作物示范田最高单位面积产量、未来我国玉米等主要粮食消费需求等数据为样本,应用时间序列比较分析方法,分析我国玉米生产地位、优势和降低玉米生产成本的关键所在。[结果]玉米是我国规模最大、发展最快、自给率水平最高、生产优势最为明显、增产潜力和消费需求增长空间最大的粮食作物;世界上绝大多数人口大国保持玉米自给。[结论]我国玉米生产具有相对优势,具有很大的降本增产潜力,是决定未来我国粮食安全的重要要素,应将玉米与水稻和小麦予同样重要地位,继续保持目前95%以上的自给率水平。The purpose of this study is to put forward the self-sufficiency ratio goal of maize and its realization ways by systematically analyzing the status,superiority of maize in China and self-sufficiency ratio of the countries with large population,hoping to provide references for national food security decisions. The time series forecasting method was used to analyze status,superiority and the key point to reduce the cost of maize production by using series data from the following 5 aspects: the production and import and export of major grain crops in China from 1980 to 2017;the production and import and export of maize in the world’s most populous country from 2010 to 2017,the cost of main maize producing areas in China and cost of major grain crops in the United States,the irrigation water consumption of major grain crops in the main maize producing areas in China;the highest yield of main grain crops in the demonstration fields in China;the future consumption demand of maize and other major grain in China.Maize is the grain crop with the largest scale,the fastest development,the highest self-sufficiency ratio in China. It also has the most obvious production advantage and the greatest potential to increase yield and consumption demand in China. Most of the countries with large population are self-sufficient in maize. Maize production has a comparative advantage and a great potential to reduce cost and increase yield in China. Maize will be an important factor to determine China’s future food safety,which should be given the same important status as rice and wheat and keep maize self-sufficiency ratio above 95%.

关 键 词：玉米生产 玉米优势 粮食安全 食物安全 粮食自给率 玉米战略 中国 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学] S-9