2018年我国石油市场形势分析与2019年展望  

Analysis of Oil Market of China in 2018 and Its Outlook in 2019

作　　者：田磊[1] 金琴琴 付晓晴 

机构地区：[1]国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所,北京100038 [2]中国石油大学,北京102249 [3]中国石油集团经济技术研究院,北京100724

出　　处：《中国能源》2019年第2期25-28,共4页Energy of China

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(编号:2017YFC0404602)

摘　　要：2018年,我国经济稳中向好带动成品油消费增长,汽油、柴油、煤油消费均呈增长态势;国内原油产量下降势头得到有效控制,原油进口量再创新高,对外依存度持续快速攀升;国内炼化产能扩张势头强劲,成品油净出口量继续增加,但受出口配额管制影响,净出口增速显著回落。面对国内外石油市场的新形势和新挑战,如何深入推进石油市场体制改革、加大勘探开发力度、优化升级炼化产业、规范市场竞争环境等是需要重点关注的问题。2018年,随着相关实施细则和配套政策等陆续出台,石油领域改革也逐渐落到实处,上游勘探成果喜讯频传、中游管网改革实质推进、下游市场愈发规范,行业逐步回暖。展望2019年,应在石油进出口改革、地方炼油行业发展、成品油价格机制完善等方面继续着力推进。In 2018,the economy stabilized and promoted the growth of refined oil consumption,while gasoline,diesel and kerosene consumption all showed growth.The decline of domestic crude oil production has effectively controlled.The import volume of crude oil reaches a new high,and the dependence on foreign countries has continued to rise rapidly.The strength of expansion is strong,and the net export of refined oil products continues to increase.However,due to the control of export quotas,the growth rate of net exports has dropped significantly.Faced with the new situation and new challenges in the domestic and international oil market,how to continuously promote the reform of the oil market system,enhance exploration and development efforts,optimize the upgrading of the refining and chemical industry,accelerate interconnection and standardize the market competition environment have become issues that need to be focused on.With the implementation of relevant implementation rules and supporting policies,the reform of the petroleum sector has gradually been implemented.The upstream exploration results have been well received,the reform of the midstream management network has been promoted,and the downstream market has become more standardized.The industry has gradually warmed up.Looking forward to 2019,efforts should be made in the areas of pipe network interconnection,oil import and export reform,local refining industry development,and refined oil price mechanism.

关 键 词：石油 体制改革 政策 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]