输电线路覆冰过程多元混沌时间序列分析  

Multivariable Chaotic Time Series Analysis for Icing Process of Transmission Lines

作　　者：马宇帆 李奇茂[1] 李鹏[1] 曹敏 沈鑫 MA Yufan;LI Qimao;LI Peng;CAO Min;SHEN Xin(School of Information,Yunnan University,Kunming 650500,China;Electric Power Research Institute,Yunnan Power Grid Co. ,Ltd. ,Kunming 650217,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学信息学院,云南昆明650500 [2]云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院,云南昆明650217

出　　处：《自动化仪表》2019年第2期63-66,71,共5页Process Automation Instrumentation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(61763049);云南省应用基础研究重点课题基金资助项目(2018FA032);云南省应用基础研究面上课题基金资助项目(2017FB229)

摘　　要：低纬度高海拔地区的极寒天气会导致输电线路覆冰,从而给电网的安全运行带来极大威胁。首先,应用主元分析方法对影响覆冰程度的微气象因子进行降维,剔除不必要的微气象因子。然后,基于降维的结果,分别使用自相关法和伪最近邻法计算微气象因子时间序列的最佳延迟时间和最小嵌入维数,并根据最大Lyapunov指数定义进行判定,得到微气象时间序列都具有混特性的结论。最后,对多变量混沌时间序列的相空间进行重构。试验结果表明,该研究能为架空输电线路的覆冰预测工作提供新的研究途径。The extreme cold weather in low latitude and high altitude areas may lead to transmission line icing,which poses a great threat to the safe operation of the power grid.Firstly,the principal component analysis(PCA) method is used to reduce the dimension of micro-meteorological factors affecting the degree of icing and eliminate unnecessary micro-meteorological factors.Then,based on the results of dimension reduction,the optimal delay time and minimum embedding dimension of the time series of micrometeorological factors are calculated by using autocorrelation method and pseudo-nearest neighbor method respectively,and then determined according to the definition of maximum Lyapunov index.The conclusion that the time series of micrometeorological factors have mixed characteristics is drawn.Finally,the phase space of multivariable chaotic time series is reconstructed.The experimental results show that it can provide a new research approach for icing prediction of overhead transmission lines.

关 键 词：输电线路 覆冰 微气象因子 主元分析 相空间重构 自相关法 伪最近邻法 多元混沌时间序列 

分 类 号：TH70[机械工程—仪器科学与技术]