海港门户宁波对外交通与城市发展耦合演变  

The coupling evolution of Ningbo as a harbor city in external traffic and urban development

作　　者：袁雯[1,2] 马仁锋 王益澄[1] 方茹茹 YUAN Wen;MA Ren-feng;WANG Yi-cheng;FANG Ru-ru(Institute of Human Geography & Urban-rural Planning,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China;Ningbo University-University of Angers Joint Institute,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学人文地理与城乡规划研究所,浙江宁波315211 [2]宁波大学宁波大学昂热大学联合学院,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《宁波大学学报（理工版）》2019年第2期114-120,共7页Journal of Ningbo University：Natural Science and Engineering Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41771174)

摘　　要：基于城市职能与外部交通理论,构建城市对外交通与城市发展耦合评价模型,定量分析宁波市1997～2016年两系统耦合状态.结果表明:(1)1997年以来,宁波城市对外交通与城市发展水平逐步提升,二者Pearson相关系数高达0.988,相关关系呈显著正相关.两系统耦合协调度由严重失衡逐步转型至初级协调,1997～2006年处于发展不平衡阶段,2007～2013年为转型发展阶段,2014～2016年为协调发展阶段;(2)对外交通建设对城市发展具有正外部性,随着经济活动向高精尖生产倾斜,未来以港口为主导的城市发展模式将逐步退化,港口功能逐渐减弱,空港上升至交通主导地位.城市对外交通与城市发展需向优质协调转型,优化对外交通结构,放缓港口建设并加快空港发展,以交通引导城市结构与职能模式升级是宁波未来城市发展首选.Based on the urban function and urban external traffic theory, the evaluation model of urban external traffic and urban development coupling relationship is constructed to quantitatively evaluate the coupling status in quo in Ningbo from 1997 to 2016. The results suggest that: 1) Since 1997, the level of urban external transportation and urban development has been gradually growing. The correlation coefficient between the two is as high as 0.988, indicating the both are significantly positively correlated. The coordination degree of the two systems gradually shift from serious imbalance to primary coordination. Between 1997 and 2006, it was in an unbalanced development period, and 2007-2013 can be referred to as a transitional development stage, and 2014-2016 a coordinated development stage is attained;2) In terms of the external traffic construction, the development features the positive externalities. As economic activities shift to high-precision production, the port-oriented urban development model will gradually degrade in the future, the port functions will be gradually weakened, and the airport industry will supplant and rise to the dominant position of transportation. It is necessary for the two parties to facilitate the transformation, optimize the city’s external traffic, slow down the port construction and speed up the development of the fast-growing airport. To achieve these targets, upgrading the urban structure and functional mode with traffic guidance should be put on the top of the priority list for Ningbo’s future urban development.

关 键 词：海港城市 集疏运网络 海洋运输 城市骨架 

分 类 号：K901[历史地理—人文地理学]