不同国防战略文化背景下中美军费支出与经济增长的关系  

Doesnational defense strategy affect economic growth?Evidence from data from 1970—2015 in China and USA

作　　者：刘喆 彭斯达[1] 黎明 Liu Zhe;Peng Sida;Li Ming(School of Economics and Management,Hubei University,Wuhan 430068,China;Basic Department,Army Logistics and Engineering University,Chongqing 401331,China;School of Economics and Management,Hubei University of Technology,Wuhan 430068,China;Hubei Business Service Development Research Center,Wuhan 430068,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北大学商学院,湖北武汉430062 [2]陆军勤务学院基础部,重庆401331 [3]湖北工业大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430068 [4]湖北省商务发展中心,湖北武汉430068

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2019年第3期178-188,共11页Forum on Science and Technology in China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(13BJY016);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(17YJC790176);国际合作项目(WWF PO3050);湖北省商务发展中心开放基金重点项目(2017Z001);湖北省社科联思想库项目(HBSXK201612)

摘　　要：经济增长与军费开支之间的关系已被广泛研究,但不同国防战略对两者关系的影响尚未形成明确共识。本文考察了中国与美国军费开支对经济增长的影响,用以分析不同国防战略文化背景下中美军费开支在国民经济中的贡献差异。采用协整的自回归分布滞后边界测试(ARDL)用于确定长期效应,矢量误差校正模型(VECM)被用于分析变量之间的短期效应。结果表明军费开支对美国长期经济增长存在显著的促进作用,军费开支与中国经济增长之间未能出现显著关联。The relationship between economic growth and military expenditure has been extensively studied,but its findings are inconclusive and contradictory.The primary reasons behind such disparities include the linear and nonlinear behavior of military expenditure on economic growth and the analysis of different techniques.This study examines the effect of military expenditure on economic growth in China and USA.The autoregressive distributive lag bounds testing (ARDL )for cointegration is used to determine the long run effect,and the vector error correction model (VECM )has been used to analyze the short run effect between the variables.The military expenditure displays a significant positive effect on economic growth for USA for both short and long run.There is no significant military expenditure effect on economic growth for China.

关 键 词：国防战略 军费支出 经济增长 ARDL 

分 类 号：F114[经济管理—国际贸易]