矿产资源最优开采问题研究——环境约束、后备替代与Hotelling法则  

The Study on Optimal Exploitation of Mineral Resource:Environment Constraint,Backstop and Hotelling Rule

作　　者：仓定帮[1,2] 魏晓平 曹明[3] CANG Ding-bang;WEI Xiao-ping;CAO Ming

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院 [2]华北科技学院理学院 [3]中国矿业大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2019年第3期85-91,102,共8页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目"矿产资源跨期优化配置的政策工具研究"(项目编号:15BGL175);河北省数据科学与应用重点实验室开放课题"分数阶灰色预测模型及其应用研究"(项目编号:HBSJQ0707);煤炭协会指导类项目"煤炭产能过剩机理及去产能路径分析--基于信息不完全视角"(项目编号:MX2017HK021)

摘　　要：矿产资源最优开采研究对资源的优化配置和社会可持续发展至关重要。经典的Hotelling模型是研究矿产资源最优开采的主要工具,但是Hotelling法则在现实中并不总是成立,一个主要原因是模型中没有考虑矿产资源开采中的环境外部性及后备替代问题。本文建立的相关数学模型,利用动态最优化方法系统地研究了在环境约束及后备替代条件下矿产资源最优开采路径,对Hotelling模型进行拓展。结果发现:不考虑环境约束、矿产资源储量较少时,资源价格路径遵循Hotelling法则,在高于后备替代价格后退出市场,并且矿产资源成本、后备替代成本等因素都会对替代节点产生影响。考虑环境因素时,若污染未达阈值,资源储量较少时,价格的变化体现了环境外部性和稀缺性,变化率高于贴现率;当污染达到阈值,并且资源储量较丰富时,价格先保持不变,体现能源消费总量控制,然后由于稀缺性促使价格上升,遵循Hotelling法则;当污染达到阈值、存在资源进口时,价格的变化与资源出口国贴现率密切相关。The optimal exploitation of mineral resources is very important to the allocation of resources and the sustainable development.Classic Hotelling model was a major means to discuss the optimal mining of mineral resources,but it was found that Hotelling rule was not always true in the reality.A main reason was that the model did not consider externalities of environment and backstop substitution.In this paper,some mathematical models were established to study the optimal exploitation path by dynamic optimization under the constraints of environment and backstop.The results shown that when the environmental constraint was not taken into account and the reserves of mineral resources was small,the resource price path follows the Hotelling principle and exits the market after higher than the reserve replacement price.In addition,the cost of mineral resources,reserve replacement cost had an impact on the substitution node.When considering environmental factors,if the pollution did not reach the threshold and the resource reserves were small,the price change reflected the environmental externality and scarcity,and the change rate was higher than the discount rate.When pollution reached the threshold and resources was abundant,the price remained unchanged to reflect the total energy consumption control,and then increased due to scarcity,following the Hotelling principle.Finally,when pollution reached the threshold and resource import existed,the price change was closely related to the discount rate of resource exporting country.

关 键 词：矿产资源 最优开采 外部性 环境 后备替代 

分 类 号：F407[经济管理—产业经济]