基于遗传算法的混合Copula函数的时段洪量估计  

Flood Volume Estimation of Mixed Copula Functions Based on Genetic Algorithm

作　　者：刘立燕 解培中[1] 王颖[2] LIU Liyan;XIE Peizhong;WANG Ying(College of Telecommunication & Information Engineering,Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications,Nanjing 210003,China;Jiangsu Provincial Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau,Nanjing 210029,China)

机构地区：[1]南京邮电大学通信与信息工程学院,江苏南京210003 [2]江苏省水文水资源勘测局,江苏南京210029

出　　处：《人民黄河》2019年第3期60-64,68,共6页Yellow River

摘　　要：淮河流域下游入江水道,每年雨水充足,容易引发洪水,对人民生命及财产安全造成威胁,因此对洪水特征变量——洪峰流量与整个洪水过程洪量的估计以及防洪工程的建设提出更高的要求。利用混合Copula函数将洪峰流量与时段洪量进行联合分析,利用基于遗传算法的优化适线法计算出淮河下游入江口的中渡水文站洪峰流量与时段洪量离差平方和最小时的Frank Copula、Clayton Copula、Gumbel Hougaard Copula的函数组合,在此基础上根据洪峰值利用边缘分布与联合分布之间的关系推求出时段洪量,为防洪工程设计提供参考。对中渡水文站实测数据的分析结果表明:采用混合Copula函数比采用单一Copula函数更精确,并且混合Copula函数具有灵活性,能够较好地拟合两变量的相关关系。Annual rainfall is sufficient in the Lower Huaihe River basin , which easily leads to floods and becomes the threat to the people ' s lives and properties. Thus , it has put forward higher requirements about the estimation of flood peak and the whole process of flood volume and the construction of flood control engineering works. In this paper , the mixed Copula function was used to build the relationship between the flood peak and volume , using the genetic algorithm to calculate the coefficient combination of Frank Copula , Clayton Copula and Gumbel Hough Copula corresponding the minimum deviation squared sum. On this basis , it calculated the flood volume of time interval according to the relationship between the edge distribution of flood peak and the joint distribution for the references of flood control engineering design. The analysis results of measured data at Zhongdu Hydrological Station show that using the mixed Copula is more accurate than using the single Copula function , the mixed Copula has the characteristics of flexibility and can fit the correlation of two variables well.

关 键 词：水文学 遗传算法 混合Copula 联合分布 中渡水文站 淮河 

分 类 号：TV122.5[水利工程—水文学及水资源]