经济增长与大气污染——基于城市面板数据的联立方程估计  

Economic Growth and Air Pollution: Simultaneous-Equation Model on Basis of Urban Panel Data

作　　者：高纹[1] 杨昕 GAO Wen;YANG Xin(School of Economics, Nanjing Audit University, Nanjing 211815, China)

机构地区：[1]南京审计大学经济学院,江苏南京211815

出　　处：《南京审计大学学报》2019年第2期90-99,共10页Journal of Nanjing Audit University

基　　金：江苏省重点学科资助项目(理论经济学);江苏省研究生科研创新计划项目(KYCX17-jmxy02)

摘　　要：采用2003—2015年我国104个城市的SO_2、NO_2和PM10浓度及2013—2016年30个省会城市的PM2. 5、CO和O_3浓度作为大气污染变量,构建经济增长与大气污染相互作用的联立方程组,使用三阶段最小二乘法(3SLS)检验随着人均GDP的增加,大气污染先严重后减轻的倒U型的环境库茨涅次曲线(EKC)是否存在。研究结果表明:六种大气污染物的浓度与经济增长之间均呈现倒U型的曲线关系; SO_2、PM10、CO和O_3的污染浓度已越过拐点,说明近年来我国对点源大气污染物的治理已经取得良好效果; NO_2和PM2. 5的污染浓度尚未越过拐点,即处于随着经济增长污染趋于加重的阶段。Using the pollution data of PM10, SO2 and NO2 in 104 cities from 2003 to 2015 and pollution data of PM2.5, CO and O 3 in 30 provincial capitals from 2013 to 2016 as air pollution variables, constructing simultaneous equations considering the interaction between growth and pollution, this paper tests the existence of “the inverted U-shape” Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC) with the increase of per capita GDP, based on Three-stage Least Square method (3SLS). The results show that the relationship between concentration of the six kinds of air pollutants and economic growth presents inverted U-shaped curves. The pollution concentration of SO2, PM10, CO and O3 has crossed the maximum-pollution turning point, which indicates that China has made a great achievement in controlling the point source air pollutants in recent years. On the other hand, the pollution concentration of NO2 and PM2.5 has not crossed the maximum-pollution turning point, that is, the degrees of pollution are still on the increasing stages with the economic growth.

关 键 词：大气污染 经济增长 库茨涅次曲线 能源消耗 环境污染 可持续发展 产业结构 人口规模 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济]