我国黑色金属资源发展形势研判  

Research on Development Situation of Ferrous Metal Resources in China

作　　者：“黑色金属矿产资源强国战略研究”专题组 姜圣才 Task Group for the Strategic Research on Great Power of Ferrous Metal Mineral Resources

机构地区：[1]不详 [2]中国冶金矿山企业协会

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2019年第1期97-103,共7页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：中国工程院咨询项目"矿产资源强国战略研究"(2015-XZ-35)

摘　　要：作为供给侧结构性改革的先行者,中国钢铁行业积极化解过剩产能,彻底取缔"地条钢",2016—2017年化解钢铁产能超过1.2×10~8t,清除"地条钢"等违法产能1.4×10~8t。当前,全球钢铁工业处于产能过剩周期,中国钢铁消费由持续增长向"峰值平台区"转变,单位GDP粗钢消费强度回落,单位投资粗钢消费强度下降,预计到2025年国内粗钢消费需求量为6×10~8～6.5×10~8t,产量为6.5×10~8～7.0×10~8t;到2030年,国内粗钢消费需求量为5.3×10~8～6.0×10~8t,产量为5.9×10~8～6.5×10~8 t。与此同时,我国废钢资源供给量将快速增加,未来充足的废钢资源将是我国钢铁工业强有力的支撑,铁素资源构成也将发生重大变化,国际铁矿石资源的需求量将逐步下降,同时对于推动生态文明建设和绿色发展具有重要作用。As a forerunner of the supply-side structure reform,China’s iron and steel industry actively resolves its overcapacity.More than 1.2×108 t of excessive steel production capacity has been resolved between 2016 and 2017,and 1.4×10^8 t of illegal production capacity,such as“substandard steel”has been eliminated.As the global iron and steel industry is currently in the excess production capacity cycle,China’s steel consumption has developed from a sustained growth phase to a peak value platform area.Meanwhile,both the crude steel consumption intensity per unit GDP and that per unit investment has decreased.It is expected that the consumption demand and output of crude steel in China will reach 6×10^8.6.5×10^8 t and 6.5×10^8.7.0×10^8 t by 2025,respectively;and these same items will reach 5.3×10^8.6.0×10^8 t and 5.9×10^8.6.5×10^8 t by 2030,respectively.Meanwhile,the supply of steel scrap resources in China will increase rapidly,and the sufficient steel scrap resources will become a strong support for China’s iron and steel industry.The structure of iron resources will also be greatly changed,and the demand for international iron ore resources will decrease gradually.All the changes are important in promoting ecological civilization construction and green development.

关 键 词：钢铁 废钢 铁矿石 峰值平台区 

分 类 号：F407.3[经济管理—产业经济]