面向涉恐舆情的网民心理演化系统动力学模型研究  

On System Dynamic Model of Netizens' Psychological Evolution Facing Terrorism Public Opinion

作　　者：杨谨铖 张秋波 夏一雪 兰月新 Yang Jincheng;Zhang Qiubo;Xia Yixue;Lan Yuexin(China People's Police University, Langfang 065000)

机构地区：[1]中国人民警察大学,廊坊065000

出　　处：《情报杂志》2019年第3期141-147,154,共8页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：河北省科技计划项目"大数据背景下网络舆情深度分析关键技术研究"(编号:15275603);河北省高等教育教学改革课题"公安情报可视化教学系统构建研究与实践"(编号:2018-GJJG445)

摘　　要：[目的/意义]涉恐舆论环境中网民心理演化过程表现出复杂性、非线性等特征。及时发现网民心理演化规律,可以科学有效的指导情报支持工作,提高反恐效率。[方法/过程]构建网民心理演化的系统动力学模型,以"7·5"事件对该模型进行仿真,验证了模型的有效性。[结果/结论]仿真结果表明扭曲的敏感信息与真实相似程度、恐怖思想煽动性、信息公开程度和政府满意度等要素对涉恐舆论情报支持工作影响更大,最后对情报支持工作的具体方法提出了对策研究。[Purpose/Significance] The psychological evolution process of netizens in the environment of fear and public opinion shows complex and nonlinear characteristics. Identifying the psychological evolution of netizens timely can guide intelligence support work scientifically and effectively, and improve anti-terrorism efficiency.[Method/Process] The system dynamics model of netizens' psychological evolution was constructed. The model was simulated with the "July 5th" event, and the validity of the model was verified.[Result/Conclusion] The simulation results show that the similarity degree of distorted sensitive information and the true reality, horror ideology, information disclosure and government satisfaction have a greater impact on the intelligence support work. At the end of the paper, the countermeasures for the specific methods of intelligence support work are proposed.

关 键 词：涉恐舆情 心理演化 系统动力学 情报支持 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学]