湖北省杉木栽培区划及气候特征研究  

Study on cultivation regionalization and climate features of Cunninghamia lanceolata in Hubei province

作　　者：杜超群[1] 王起富 曾勇 谭勋桃 刘星[1] 许业洲[1] DU Chaoqun;WANG Qifu;ZENG Yong;TAN Xuntao;LIU Xing;XU Yezhou(Hubei Academy of Forestry,Wuhan 430075,Hubei,China;Institute of Forestry Science in Xianning,Xianning 437100,Hubei,China;Forestry Research Institute of Enshi,Enshi 445000,Hubei,China;Forestry Station of Longping in Jianshi,Jianshi 445300,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北省林业科学研究院,湖北武汉430079 [2]咸宁市林业科学院,湖北咸宁437100 [3]恩施州林业科学研究所,湖北恩施445000 [4]建始县龙坪林业管理站,湖北建始445300

出　　处：《中南林业科技大学学报》2019年第4期5-10,共6页Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology

基　　金："十二五"农村领域国家科技支撑计划子课题(2015BAD09B0104);湖北省技术创新专项(重大项目)(2016ABA111)

摘　　要：通过收集湖北省杉木人工林地理信息和温、湿度相关气候因子数据,利用ArcGIS软件和最大信息熵模型,对湖北省杉木栽培区域进行划分,并找出影响杉木栽培的主要气候因子以及适宜栽培的区域,为杉木人工林的科学布局提供依据。结果表明:1)湖北省杉木气候区划可以分为3个等级:最适宜区、较适宜区和不适宜区,其中最适宜区面积为1.86×10~6 hm^2,较适宜区面积为3.23×10~6 hm^2,适宜区域主要为鄂西山区和鄂东南低山丘陵区;2)模型ROC曲线检测AUC值为0.916,利用二类清查人工林信息验证准确率达到96.22%,说明模型预测效果较好;3)刀切法分析对预测贡献率较大的主要为反应水分条件及水热同步的指标,排名前4位的因子分别为最湿季平均温度、最湿季降水量、年降水量和最湿月降水量。In order to classify cultivation regions and provide references for layout of Cunninghamia lanceolata in Hubei province,the software ArcGIS and MaxEnt were used to analyze the main climate factors affecting the fir cultivation and the suitable cultivation region with environmental data of temperature and humidity and the known distribution of plantations. The results show that 1) The climate division of Chinese fir in Hubei province can be divided into three grades: the most suitable area, the suitable area and the unsuitable area. The most suitable area was 1.86×10^6 hm^2, and the suitable area was 3.23×10^6 hm^2. The suitable areas were mainly located in the mountainous areas in Western Hubei and hilly areas in southeastern Hubei. 2) The AUC value of model ROC curve detection was 0.916, and the accuracy of verification by using the information of second-class inventory plantation reached 96.22%, which shows that the model has a good prediction effect. 3) The results of knife-cut analysis show that the main factors contributing to the prediction were the reaction water condition and the synchronization index of water and heat, the top four factors were the average temperature in the wettest season, the rainfall in the wettest season, the annual rainfall and the monthly rainfall in the wettest season.

关 键 词：杉木 栽培区划 气候特征 模型预测 湖北省 

分 类 号：S722[农业科学—林木遗传育种] S791.27[农业科学—林学]