WOFOST模型对河南省冬小麦模拟的适用性分析  

Applicability Analysis of WOFOST Model for Winter Wheat in Henan

作　　者：张弘[1,2] 刘伟昌[1,2,3] 李树岩 Zhang Hong;Liu Weichang;Li Shuyan(CMA· Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Zhengzhou 450003,China;Henan Provincial Meteorological Society,Zhengzhou 450003,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局.河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室,郑州450003 [2]河南省气象科学研究所,郑州450003 [3]河南省气象学会,郑州450003

出　　处：《气象与环境科学》2019年第1期34-40,共7页Meteorological and Environmental Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局.河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室项目(AMF201402;AMF201609);中国气象局预报预测核心业务发展专项(CMAHX20160402)

摘　　要：为进一步研究WOFOST模型在河南省冬麦区的适用性,以河南省30个农业气象观测站1991—2014年冬小麦观测资料、历史气象资料和土壤资料为依据,对WOFOST模型进行逐站调参和验证,分别建立了30个站的冬小麦模型参数。其中1991—2010年为模型调参年份,2011—2014年为模型验证年份。各站开花期和成熟期调参模拟的归一化均方根误差NRMSE分别小于5%和3%,验证误差分别为3.7%和2.9%。除潢川和固始外,模型对其余各站产量模拟的归一化均方根误差NRMSE全省各站均小于20.0%,验证误差全省平均为15.2%,大部分站点观测值和模拟值相关系数r通过了显著检验。利用调参后的模型模拟2011—2014年冬小麦生长动态变化可知,模拟地上部总干物重与实测单株干物重、模拟LAI与单株叶面积有较一致的变化趋势,拟合度较高。因此,WOFOST模型对河南省冬小麦主要发育阶段、产量及干物质积累模拟能力较强,具有良好的应用前景。To test applicability of WOFOST model in winter wheat regions in Henan province,this model was calibrated and validated based on the observed winter wheat data,weather and soil data of 1991 2014 in 30 agrometeorological observation stations.The model was calibrated with observed data of 1991 2010 and validated with 2011 2014.The results showed that the normalized root mean square errors(NRMSE)of calibration for flowering and maturity dates were less than 5%and 3%respectively.The NRMSEs of validation were 3.7%and 2.9%respectively.The NRMSE for grain yield were less than 20%for calibration period in all stations except Huangchuan and Gushi,and the average NRMSE of all stations was 15.2%for validation period.The correlation coefficient of observed data and simulated data were significance(α=0.05)in most stations.The growth dynamic change of winter wheat was simulated from 2011 to 2014 with calibration model.The simulated total biomass with top weight pre plant and leaf index pre plant consistent with the trends.The WOFOST model has strong simulation ability for growth stage,yield and biomass accumulation,and it would step in research and application.

关 键 词：WOFOST作物模型 调参验证 冬小麦 

分 类 号：S512.11[农业科学—作物学]