“限购令”能够有效平抑房价吗——基于2007年～2015年我国30个城市的数据  

Can the“Limited Purchasing Order”Effectively Stabilize the Housing Price——based on the Data of 30 Domestic Cities from 2007 to 2015

作　　者：彭刚[1] 赵乐新 李晶茂 PENG Gang;ZHAO Le-xin;LI Jing-mao(School of Economics Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu Sichuan 611130)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学统计学院

出　　处：《价格月刊》2018年第7期1-6,共6页

基　　金：全国统计科学研究重大项目(编号:2017LD05);四川省社会科学研究“十三五”规划青年项目(编号:SC17C058);四川省统计科学研究计划项目(编号:2017sc25)的资助

摘　　要：以国内30个城市为样本,利用ADF单位根检验法和A&H迭代模型研究了2011年各城市相继出台的限购政策对房地产市场的影响,进而评价“限购令”的政策效果。实证结果表明:30个城市中仅有5个城市是可以基本确认其房地产市场不存在价格泡沫。存在泡沫的城市,泡沫程度虽各有不同,但其变化路径具有相似性,即在2011年“限购令”实施前几年泡沫程度逐步上升,2012年都有所回落,之后年份又呈上升趋势。由此可认为“限购令”仅能够在较短期内抑制房价持续升高。面对房地产过热的现象,实施“限购令”仅仅是权宜之计。政府“因势利导”,发挥其在房地产市场中的资源配置作用,优化房地产市场的供求关系,这是解决当前房地产市场过热的“治本之策”。With 30 domestic cities as samples,this paper uses ADF unit root test and A&H iterative model to study the impact of successive limited purchasing policy on real estate market since 2011,and evaluates the policy effect of“Limited Purchasing Order”.The empirical results reveal that:merely 5 cities out of 30 samples can be basically confirmed to have no price bubble in their real estate market.For the cities with real estate bubble,the bubble degree differs,but the changing path has similarity,namely gradual ascending bubble before the“Limited Purchasing Order”was issued in 2011,descending in 2012 and increasing again consequently.It can be considered that“Limited Purchasing Order”can only stabilize the continuous increase in housing price in short run.For the phenomenon of real estate craze,the implementation of“Limited Purchasing Order”is only a temporary expedient.For Government,making the best use of the circumstances,playing a role of resource allocation in real estate effect and optimizing the supply and demand relationship are the essential strategy to solve the real estate craze.

关 键 词：“限购令” 房地产热 房地产泡沫 平稳性检验 A&H模型 

分 类 号：F726[经济管理—产业经济]