人口老龄化对中药价格影响的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Aging of Population on Price of Traditional Chinese Medicine

作　　者：邹海峰 沈鹏远[1,2] ZOU Hai-feng;SHEN Peng-yuan(Graduate School Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488;Teaching and Research Department of Economics Harbin Party School,Harbin Heilongjiang 150080)

机构地区：[1]中国社科院研究生院,北京102488 [2]哈尔滨市行政学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《价格月刊》2018年第7期27-31,共5页

基　　金：“中央高校基本科研业务费资助(编号:3142017005)”中的研究成果

摘　　要：利用1995年~2015年65岁及以上老年人口占比和中药材及中成药类居民消费价格指数年度数据,建立VAR模型考察老年人口增长率对中药价格指数波动的影响,分析结果表明:老年人口增长率是中药价格指数波动的格兰杰原因;老年人口增长率对中药价格指数波动的影响具有一定滞后性;从长期来说,老年人口增长率对中药价格指数波动的方差贡献率为17%。以上结论表明,人口老龄化在一定程度上对中药价格具有影响。By using annual data of consumer price indexes of the proportion of 65 years old or above,Chinese medicine materials and Chinese patent medicine from 1995 to 2015,this paper builds VAR model to investigate the impact of growth rate of aging population on Chinese medicine price index fluctuation,and the results reveal that:the growth rate of aging population is the Granger cause of Chinese price index fluctuation;the impact of growth rate of aging population on Chinese medicine price index fluctuation is somewhat lagged;in the long run,the variance contribution rate of growth rate of aging population on Chinese price index fluctuation is 17%.All the above conclusions reveal that the aging of population affects the Chinese medicine price to some extent.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 中药价格 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F726[经济管理—产业经济]