我国储备棉政策对国际棉花市场传递效应研究——基于VEC模型和协整方法分析  

Research on the Transmission Effect of Cotton Reserve Policy of China on International Cotton Market——based on VEC Model and Cointegration Analysis

作　　者：祝宏辉 李晓晓 ZHU Hong-hui;LI Xiao-xiao(School of Economics and Management Agricultural ModernizationResearch Center Shihezi University,Shihezi Xinjiang 832003)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学经济与管理学院农业现代化研究中心

出　　处：《价格月刊》2018年第7期80-86,共7页

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“贸易经济背景下新疆棉花价格波动及调控政策研究”(编号:13BJY140)

摘　　要：在我国棉花补贴政策受到WTO条款质疑的背景下,储备棉轮入轮出机制成为开放市场背景下政府宏观调控的有效手段。运用协整方法与VEC模型,对1975年~2016年我国储备棉轮入轮出量、国际棉花价格、产量及消费量的关联性进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,我国储备棉轮入轮出量、国际棉花价格、产量及消费量四者之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系;我国储备棉轮入轮出量、国际棉花价格及国际棉花消费量均为国际棉花产量的格兰杰原因,国际棉花产量和国际棉花价格互为格兰杰原因。但是国际棉花产量、价格及消费量均不为我国棉花储备棉轮入轮出量的格兰杰原因。从VEC模型来看,我国储备棉轮入轮出量与国际棉花供求相互影响且效果显著。Under the background of cotton subsidy policy of China questioned by WTO clause,the cotton reserve input and output mechanism has become an effective mean for the governmental macro-control in the context of open market.This paper uses cointegration method and VEC model to make empirical test of the correlation among the cotton reserve input and output,international cotton price,yield and consumption of China from 1975 to 2016.The empirical results reveal that:there exists long term stable balance relationship among the cotton reserve input and output,international cotton price,yield and consumption;The cotton reserve input and output,international cotton price and international cotton consumption are the Granger causality of international cotton yield,international cotton yield and international cotton price are mutual Granger causality to each other.However,international cotton yield,price and consumption are not the Granger causality of the cotton reserve input and output of China.From VEC model,the cotton reserve input and output and international cotton supply and demand have mutual impact and the result is significant.

关 键 词：VEC模型 储备棉轮入轮出机制 国际棉花价格 国际棉花产量 

分 类 号：F726.2[经济管理—产业经济]