人口老龄化对商品房价格的区域影响研究  

Research on Regional Impact of Aging Population on Commercial Housing Price

作　　者：顾晶晶[1] 田伟[1] GU Jing-jing;TIAN Wei(Jiangsu Administration Institute,Nanjing Jiangsu 210009)

机构地区：[1]江苏省行政学院

出　　处：《价格月刊》2018年第2期1-9,共9页

基　　金：国家社会科学基金“构建扩大消费长效机制的着力点研究”(编号:12CJY072)

摘　　要：运用房价预期理论模型,研究人口年龄结构对商品房价格的影响,并运用面板向量自回归模型(PVAR)对其进行了实证检验和模拟。结果表明:第一,人口年龄结构对商品房价格的影响是通过影响消费性需求和投资性需求两条途径完成,不仅与影响系数本身大小有关,而且与消费投资之间配置权重有关;第二,人口老龄化对商品房价格的影响越来越大,且对东部地区的影响要显著高于中、西部地区,除了东部地区老龄化程度高的原因,还因为东部地区更加注重房地产投资功能,而中、西部地区更加注重消费功能;第三,人口年龄结构因素与其他因素共同对房价产生影响,东、中、西部的主导影响因素各不相同,脉冲响应结果也表明各因素的影响程度将随着时间发生改变,但是各区域老龄化影响均会扩大。This paper uses housing price prediction theoretical model to study the impact of population age structure on commercial housing price, and uses panel vector self regression model (PVAR) to take empirical test and simulation. The results indicate that: the impact of population age structure is achieved by affecting the consumption demand and investment demand, it is not only related to the impacting coefficient, but also related to the allocation weight between consumption and investment;the aging population has greater impact on commercial housing price, and the impact on eastern area is significantly higher than that in central and western areas. Despite the higher aging population, the real estate investment function has been paid more attention in eastern are, while in the central and western area consumption function was more focused;population age structure and other factors have impact on housing price, and major impacting factors differ in eastern, central and western areas, the pulse response results reveal that the impact degree of each factor will change with time, but the impact of aging in each region will be enlarged.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 房价预期模型 面板向量自回归 区域差异 

分 类 号：F726[经济管理—产业经济]