英国脱欧不确定性:公司决策层的看法  

Brexit and Uncertainty: Insights from the Decision Maker Panel

作　　者：Nicholas Bloom Philip Bunn Scarlet Chen Paul Mizen Pawel Smietanka Greg Thwaites Garry Young 

机构地区：[1]斯坦福大学 [2]英格兰银行 [3]诺丁汉大学 [4]伦敦政经大学宏观经济中心 [5]英国国家经济社会研究协会

出　　处：《中国货币市场》2019年第3期73-77,共5页China Money

摘　　要：2016年公投脱欧给英国商业界带来了巨大不确定性,因其持续性、广泛性和政治复杂性,此种不确定性较以往大有不同。为此对公司决策层开展调查发现:首先,40%的英国公司认为,脱欧是公投后近两年里面临的前三大不确定性来源之一,其影响重要而持久。其次,对与欧盟的贸易和欧盟移民劳工更依赖的行业,面临更高的不确定性。第三,英国脱欧的不确定性(包括脱欧的性质及过渡期安排等)对商业的长期影响较短期影响更重要。The UK’s decision to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum created substantial uncertainty for UK businesses. The nature of this uncertainty is different from that of a typical uncertainty shock because of its length, breadth and political complexity. Consequently, a new firm-level survey, the Decision Maker Panel (DMP), was created to investigate this, finding three key results. First, Brexit was reported to be one of the top three sources of uncertainty for around 40% of UK businesses in the two years after the vote in June 2016 referendum. Hence, Brexit provided both a major and persistent uncertainty shock. Second, uncertainty has been higher in industries that are more dependent on trade with the EU and on EU migrant labour. Third, the uncertainties around Brexit have been primarily about the impact on businesses over the longer term rather than shorter term, including uncertainty about the timing of any transition arrangements and around the nature of Brexit.

关 键 词：不确定性 英国公司 决策层 短期影响 商业界 持续性 复杂性 公投 

分 类 号：F623[经济管理—产业经济]