中越双边产品内贸易及其影响因素  

China-Vietnam Bilateral Intra-Product Trade and Its Influencing Factors

作　　者：谢学兴[1] 高斌 XIE Xue-xing;GAO Bin(Guangxi University for Nationalities, Nanning 530006, China)

机构地区：[1]广西民族大学商学院 [2]广西民族大学

出　　处：《广西民族大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2018年第4期167-174,共8页JOURNAL OF GUANGXI MINZU UNIVERSITY:PHILOSOPHY AND SOCIAL SCIENCE EDITION

基　　金：广西民族大学2017年度校级项目"国际生产分割视角下的中越贸易规模与结构变迁"(项目编号:2017MDSKYB06);广西民族大学2017年度校级项目"基于随机投资者情绪的股指期货定价研究"(项目编号:2017MDSKRC04);2018年广西高校中青年教师基础能力提升项目(人文社科类)"我国股指期货市场拥挤交易行为研究"(项目编号:2018KY0140)

摘　　要：基于产品内贸易视角,利用1995~2016年的时间序列数据,对中越双边贸易状况进行分析。发现产品内贸易是中越双边贸易的主要构成部分,并且其在不利的条件下继续保持增长、占比不降反升,发挥了中越双边贸易稳定器的作用。为此,进一步采取逐步回归分析法,实证检验中越产品内贸易的影响因素。检验结果表明:中越双边产品内贸易主要受外商直接投资、要素禀赋差异、双方的规模经济和中国—东盟自由贸易区成立的影响。最后,对其原因加以分析,并提出相应政策建议。Based on time-sequence data during 1995-2016, this paper analyzes the situation of China-Vietnam bilateral goods trade from the perspective of intra-product trade. It is found that intra-product trade is the main component of China-Vietnam bilateral goods trade, and China-Vietnam bilateral intra-product trade maintains a steady growth against unfavorable conditions with a rising proportion instead of a declining one, which fully exerts its function as a stabilizer of China-Vietnam bilateral goods trade. On this basis, the paper uses stepwise regression analysis to conduct an empirical test on the influencing factors in China-Vietnam intra-product trade. The results show that China-Vietnam bilateral intra-product trade is mainly affected by foreign direct investment, difference in factor endowment, relative industrial scale of both sides and the establishment of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area. Finally, the paper analyzes appropriate reasons and puts forward some relevant suggestions to policy making.

关 键 词：中越双边产品 产品内贸易 逐步回归法 

分 类 号：F740.44[经济管理—国际贸易]