汇率变动对贸易收支影响的实证分析——基于“汇改”后的中韩双边贸易数据  

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Exchange Rate Changes on Trade Balance——Based on Sino-Korean Bilateral Trade Data after the Exchange Reform

作　　者：王兴帅 王波[2] WANG Xing-shuai;WANG Bo(College of Business,Chungbuk National University,Chungbuk 28644,Korea;School of Economics and Management,Weifang University,Weifang Shandong 261061,China)

机构地区：[1]韩国忠北大学经营学院,韩国忠北28644 [2]潍坊学院经济管理学院,山东潍坊261061

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2019年第3期81-85,共5页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：潍坊学院博士科研基金项目(2017BS21);潍坊学院"优青计划"资助项目

摘　　要：中美贸易冲突背景下,难免会引发汇率的调整是否为应对贸易战的猜测。汇率协调虽是促进国际贸易整合的重要举措,但相关理论与实证研究表明,汇率波动与贸易的关系并不明确。当前我国的汇率机制相对灵活,央行也基本退出常态化干预,人民币汇率主要由前日收盘价和参考一篮子汇率决定,市场化程度显著提高。韩国作为我国最大进口来源国,以此为样本进行汇率变动与贸易收支的影响研究,具有一定的理论及实践意义。通过对2005年"汇改"后至2016年的季度数据进行相关计量分析后发现,人民币实际汇率变动对中韩贸易收支的改善作用有限,而两国政治环境变化、经济发展水平、进出口贸易结构等也存在一定影响。并提出引导出口企业增强汇率风险意识,转变进出口贸易方式和结构,加强货币互换等金融领域的合作,积极推进人民币国际化等建议。In the context of trade conflict between China and the United States,it is inevitable to arouse speculation about whether the exchange rate adjustment is a response to the trade war.Although exchange rate coordination is an important measure to promote the integration of international trade,relevant theoretical and empirical studies have shown that the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and trade is not clear.At present,China’s exchange rate mechanism is relatively flexible,and the central bank has basically withdrawn from normalized intervention.The RMB exchange rate is mainly determined by the previous day’s closing price and the reference to a basket of exchange rates,and marketization has increased significantly.As one of the largest import source country of China,South Korea has a certain theoretical and practical significance as a sample for the impact of exchange rate changes and trade balance.Through the relevant metrological analysis of the quarterly data from 2005 after the“exchange reform”to 2016,it is found that the real exchange rate changes of the RMB have a limited effect on the improvement of China-South Korea trade balance,while the political environment changes,economic development level,trade structure of the two countries,etc.also have some influence.It also proposed to guide export enterprises to enhance risk awareness about exchange rate,to change the mode and structure of import and export trade,to strengthen cooperation in financial fields such as currency swaps,and to actively promote the internationalization of the RMB.

关 键 词：汇率变动 贸易收支 人民币国际化 汇率协调 汇改 官方汇率 市场汇率 

分 类 号：F740.3[经济管理—国际贸易]