建筑工业化与新型城镇化互动效应研究——基于耦合协调、协整和Granger因果分析  

Research on Interaction Effect between Construction Industrialization and New Urbanization:Based on Coupling Coordination,Cointegration and Granger Causality Analysis

作　　者：唐晓灵[1] 刘越铭 TANG Xiaoling;LIU Yueming(School of Management,Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi’an 710055,China)

机构地区：[1]西安建筑科技大学管理学院,陕西西安710055

出　　处：《建筑经济》2019年第3期23-28,共6页Construction Economy

基　　金：陕西省教育厅哲学社会科学基地研究项目"BIM技术扩散机制研究"(13JZ027);西安市软科学项目"新型城镇化视角下西安市县域经济发展模式研究"(2017109SF/RK003-(4))

摘　　要：基于我国2005～2017年统计数据,利用熵值法、耦合协调模型、Granger因果检验等方法对建筑工业化和新型城镇化的互动效应进行分析。结果表明,我国建筑工业化发展水平落后于经济、社会、生态城镇化;建筑工业化与经济、社会城镇化协调度较高,与人口城镇化发展出现一定偏离;建筑工业化与新型城镇化存在长期均衡的协整关系;人口、经济、社会城镇化与建筑工业化互动效应显著存在短期的因果关系,而生态城镇化对建筑工业化的影响则相对滞后。据此,从加强并利用二者互动效应、缩短滞后期等方面提出相关建议。Based on the statistical data of China from 2005 to 2017,this paper uses entropy method,coupling coordination model,granger causality test and other methods to analyze the interaction effect between construction industrialization and new urbanization. The result of coupling coordination shows that the degree of coordination between construction industrialization and economic and social urbanization is high,which deviates from the development of population urbanization. Co integration test shows that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between new urbanization and construction industrialization. Granger causality test shows that population,economy,social urbanization and construction industrialization have significant interactive effects, while the impact of ecological urbanization on construction industrialization is relatively lagging behind. Accordingly,puts forward some suggestions in terms of strengthening and utilizing the interaction effect between them and shortening the lag period.

关 键 词：建筑工业化 新型城镇化 发展指数 互动效应 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]