中国的M2/GDP:一个文献综述  

China's M2/GDP: A Review

作　　者：党印[1] 汪洋[2] DANG Yin;WANG Yang(China Institute of Industrial Relations,Beijing,100048,China;Institute of Finance,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang,330013,China)

机构地区：[1]中国劳动关系学院 [2]江西财经大学金融学院

出　　处：《金融评论》2019年第1期44-57,124,共15页Chinese Review of Financial Studies

摘　　要：中国的M2/GDP比率自20世纪90年代以来不断攀升,学界分别从分子、分母及总体的角度寻找原因并进行解释。本文梳理了各种解释的内在逻辑和彼此间联系,分析了不同解释的潜在瓶颈,并讨论了M2/GDP过高的深层原因。本文认为,M2/GDP过高、M2/GDP过高但物价不涨是两个虽有联系但本质不同的问题。在以出口和投资拉动经济的增长模式下,外汇占款的变化直接影响了基础货币乃至货币供应量的变化,高投资使货币供应量随着银行体系发放企业贷款而增加。在实体经济收益率下降和虚拟经济膨胀的背景下,大量资金流向虚拟经济,导致实体经济物价保持低位。即便是流向实体经济的贷款,也因为企业的盈利能力较低,创造的GDP远不及投入的贷款规模,使货币供应量拉动GDP的能力减弱,表现为M2/GDP偏高。本文亦为金融改革和经济改革提供了明晰的决策参考。China's M2/GDP ratio has been rising since 1990s,and scholars have looked for reasons for the high ratio and explained respectively from the perspectives of numerator,denominator and the overall situation.This paper reviews the internal logic of various interpretations and their relations with each other,analyzes some potential bottlenecks in interpretation,and discusses the underlying causes of high M2/GDP.We argue that high M2/GDP,high M2/GDP with low price index are two problems that have connection and essential difference.While china's economic growth is lead by investment and export,money supply increases with the increase of foreign exchange,and in the bank dominated financial system under the background of high investment,money supply increases with the increase of corporate loans.As the real economy yields is lower than the virtual economy,a lot of money flows to the virtual economy rather than the real economy,leading to the long lasting low prices in real economy.The funds flowing to the real economy,due to the reduced viability of enterprises,did not create GDP or only create fewer GDP,so that the role of money supply pulling GDP weakened,showing M2/GDP high.This paper also provides clear decision-making reference for financial reform and economic reform.

关 键 词：M2/GDP 经济增长模式 融资模式企业自生能力 

分 类 号：E42[军事—军事理论] E44