烤烟移栽期干旱监测评估模型研究及在攀西地区的应用  

Study of Drought Monitoring Evaluation Model during Tobacco Transplanting and Its Application

作　　者：张玉芳[1,2] 刘琰琰[3] 杜成勋 肖国杰[3] ZHANG Yu-fang;LIU Yan-yan;DU Chen-xun;XIAO Guo-jie(Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Chengdu/Heavy Rainand Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Sichuan Chengdu 610072,China;Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Sichuan Chengdu 610225,China;Agro-meteorological Center of Sichuan Province,Sichuan Chengdu 610072,China;Weather Bureau of Panzhihua,Sichuan Panzhihua 617000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所/高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,四川成都610072 [2]四川省农业气象中心,四川成都610072 [3]成都信息工程大学高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,四川成都610225 [4]攀枝花市气象局,四川攀枝花617000

出　　处：《西南农业学报》2019年第2期286-290,共5页Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：旺苍县农业气象资源与农业生产技术关联系统开发应用(2018JY0341);四川省教育厅科研基金资助项目(2017Z048);高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室2018-重点-05-01

摘　　要：【目的】攀西地区烤烟移栽期受干旱影响严重,加之多数烤烟种植区的水利设施较差,雨季开始偏迟的年份,干旱严重,烟苗移栽后成活率低,严重影响其产量和质量。【方法】本文从业务需求角度出发,计算了逐旬烤烟农田水分盈亏指数,并分析其平均状况,从烤烟移栽期干旱指数的变异系数、风险概率、风险指数等多方面分析烤烟移栽期的风险度。【结果】攀西农区大部在烤烟移栽期都处于偏旱范围,且至北向南干旱指数逐渐增大;重旱发生年份较多、风险较大区域集中在西昌、德昌、宁南、普格、会东、美姑及雷波县;攀西地区中部在烤烟移栽期发生重旱的风险概率较大;高风险区位于德昌、米易的部分区域及冕宁县的大部。【结论】在上述高风险区应加强烤烟移栽期干旱监测预警服务,提醒相关部门积极采取相应措施,避免干旱对烤烟在蹲苗伸根期造成危害,影响烤烟最终产量。【Objective】The drought affected tobacco growing severely in Panxi region,especially during transplanting period,and the irrigation facilities were poor in most of the tobacco planting area.The late coming of rainy season could enhance the drought and reduce the yield and quality of tobacco significantly due to poor survival rates after transplanting.【Method】In this study,the field water budget index was calculated in each ten days,and its spatial distribution was analyzed.The drought risk of tobacco during transplanting was further analyzed in the aspects of coefficient of variation,risk probability and risk index.【Result】The drought occurred during tobacco transplanting period in most of the tobacco planting area.And the drought index became higher from the norther to the south.The severe drought was more likely to occur in Xichang,Dechang,Ningnan,Puge,Huidong,Meigu and Leibo counties with high frequency and risk.The risk probability of severe drought during tobacco transplanting was high in the central area of Panxi region.The high risk of tobacco drought was mainly located in the most of Mianning county and parts of Dechang and Miyi counties.【Conclusion】In the above-mentioned high-risk areas,the drought monitoring and early warning service for flue-cured tobacco transplanting period should be strengthened,and the relevant departments should be reminded to take corresponding measures to prevent the drought from causing damage to the flue-cured tobacco during the rooting stage and affect the final yield of flue-cured tobacco.

关 键 词：烤烟 移栽期 干旱监测 

分 类 号：S166[农业科学—农业气象学]