IS-LM模型修正、财政政策边界与民间投资的替代效应  

The correction of IS-LM Model, fiscal policy boundary and the substitution effect of private investment

作　　者：武彦民 岳凯 李晓宇 WU Yan-min;YUE Kai;LI Xiao-yu(School of Finance, Tax and Public Administration, Tianjin University of Finance and Economics,Tianjin 300222, China)

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学财税与公共管理学院,天津300222

出　　处：《天津商业大学学报》2019年第2期3-8,19,共7页Journal of Tianjin University of Commerce

基　　金：天津市哲学社会科学规划项目"经济新常态下天津市土地供给侧结构性改革与产业结构优化研究"(TJYY17-026);天津市高等学校创新团队"现代财政制度构建与地方政府治理"支持

摘　　要：修正了IS-LM模型的假设条件,指出由基础设施投资支撑的财政政策存在边界,当赤字率或债务率达到一定水平后,再扩大政府投资会增加经济运行风险,此时财政政策处于无效区间。对于民间投资而言,其决策依据除了利率,还包括预期收益率,在经济下行周期中,民间投资意愿下降得更快。当财政政策到达甚至越过边界后,应当发挥民间投资对政府投资的替代效应,减少政府直接投资,转而通过其他政策手段,提高民间投资的预期收益率,发挥其在稳定经济增长方面的关键作用。This article corrects the assumptions of the IS-LM Model and points out that the fiscal policy supported by infrastructure investment has a boundary.When the deficit rate or the debt ratio reaches a certain level,the expansion of government investment will increase the risk of economic operation.At this time,fiscal policy is in the ineffective range.For private investment,its decision-making is based on not only interest rates but also expected returns.In the downward cycle of the economy,private investment will decline faster.When the fiscal policy reaches or even goes beyond the boundary,the substitution effect of private investment on government investment should be brought into play,and direct government investment should be reduced.Instead,other policy means should be used to improve the expected return rate of private investment so that it may play a key role in stabilizing economic growth.

关 键 词：IS-LM模型 政府投资 民间投资 

分 类 号：F832.48[经济管理—金融学]